RE:RE:Analysts target I'd agree with you it doesn't speak directly too endpoints in clinical trials and it's not the type of info that gets regulators basing decisions on. I think in NASH wrt efficacy they mostly base that on the histological endpoints. I do think it's supportive of that decision making process, it adds depth to the mechanistic processes and so gives you more comfort in the decision but it can't lead that process so in that sense the value has a limit.
In essence it's telling the same story at the molecular level that the histological endpoints are telling at the tissue/cellular level. So take one gene set in their analysis, tissue repair. Fibrosis is, in part, the deposition of collagen in the liver in response to damage. In order to deposit collagen you have to switch on genes that make collagen. What this molecular study shows is that some of the collagen producing genes remain switched on (unregulated) in the placebo patients with actively progressing fibrosis but switched off (downregulated) in the Egrifta treated patients where fibrosis progression stops. You have at the molecular level support for what you see at the histological level. That's super important for strengthening the story because you now have two independent sources of info. It's the sort of thing that partners, regulators and analysts should hugely appreciate but ultimately not the most important consideration.
Its very odd with these two recent share price spikes. Both responded to very sciencey PR, it seems less like a computer reaction and more like there is a large number of investors/traders who are very switched on to the science output of Theratech. It seems exactly like what SPCEO has been waiting for, for the market to recognize the value of the research program, but instead of it coming through the analysts recognizing that and leading the market it seem like a bunch of pretty speculative investors/traders doing it themselves.
SPCEO1 wrote: I am not even sure any of the analysts covering the stock will write a report on it. None has so far. It would be quite a surprise to me if any price targets were raised on this info as it is not the kind of news analysts normally react to. Now, this is highly technical medical stuff, so maybe there is more to it than I realize. Basically, it is good news and it makes Egrifta look more like MDGL's drug. MDGL had a very robust trial with tons of info produces about its benefits. Grinspoon's phase II was a small trial that did not produce a robust amount of additional helpful data. This news helps fill in some of the gap between the two studies but there is no way for TH to fully fill that gap as best I can tell. That is because it was a small NIH funded study with a narrow scope.But the news is positive and anything that makes Egrifta look better raises the prospect of a general NASH partnership possibility. A new patent on a new and improved Egrifta also does that too. With so many other NASH drugs biting the dust recently, the odds of a partnership in general NASH are higher too. Still, the company has said nothing about such a partnership so it is all speculation but there is no denying things are lining up a bit nicer than in the past making this something we should be thinking about as a potential positive surprise. Clearly, a parntership in NASH with a big pharma would immediately give TH the credibility in NASH it has long deserved and needed.
Adonis wrote: Do you think analysts will increase their SP target after this PR?