RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Cytodyn downAnd by the time they will have real results, enough for approval, chances are that the pandemic in the US will be at much lower level. It is alrady down by a lot, and with expanded vaccination, it should go down even more. That being said, variants are still a worry, also, will enough people accept to get the vaccine. If the US administration is able to get to 80% or more vaccinated, real return to normal should happen somewere in the coming months. So where will be the market for Cytodyn in covid? Where will be the market in MDR HIV with Trogarzo and Fostemsavir already on the market? A tiny part of a very niche market for a druf that works only on half of MDR HIV patients, those with only the R5 strain, not the X4. All that to say that even with some approval in covid and HIV, it does not justify a high stock price. They have close to 600 millions shares outstanding plus warrants plus options. This is just crazy.
Wino115 wrote: Right, I think that's the small group where the FDA told them to add more becuase of some kind of weird age skew and lack of sufficient critical patients (bad trial design I guess). The stat that stood out to me is the entire sample where they compared the "common care patients" for both placebo and drug, so something like 300 patients were in that group, and they reduced mortality by 28%. It was a 60% reduction for ages 65 and less and it was a 75% reduction in mortality if you were critical and also in that "common care" group. Those are actually some pretty astounding numbers on a statistically significant group, especially compared to remdesivir, steroids and convalescent plasma. But because they have no clue how to present their study you would never know it from the press today. Bizarre how badly they blew it. Anyway, not our problem!
However, if I actually knew someone who was critical with Covid, I'd tell them it's worth a shot to try with those numbers and safety it passed. Everything approved so far is pretty marginal in lowering mortality or hospital duration if you become severe or worse. In fact, NIH 4 days ago stopped plasma trials as they showed zero effect, remdesivir is only for mild, and steroids are very marginal and all they use down here. Still a wide open field for someone to develop good treatment options for severe. Someone will get there hopefully as this virus ain't going away.
jfm1330 wrote: 28% reduction in mortality on only 62 patients that were critically ill. How many of these 62 patients were on placebo? To me it looks like unclear results on such a small sample.
Wino115 wrote: I know this is off-topic but it's actually a lesson. They seemed to do the over-promotion stuff "well" (if you want to consider SP alone as an indicator) to a rabid retail investor base and the science explanations very poorly. Hence the crater in the share.
Oddly, seeing the release for their critical Covid trial, I actually read the study and the results weren't actually all that bad. Seems the headline is what the press grabbed (which was a miss), but the details show that it's very effective for the really critical cases, which I guess is why the FDA told them to just look at that alone now. But they had no clue how to present a real medical trial done by doctors to the market and explain it effectively in a scientific way. That's where their failure is --no scientists on board who can explain it. Bizarre since they actually had decent medical centers doing their trial and decent doctors, but no skill in how to interpret it to show where it worked and why the FDA is agreeing to an extension of their study. Shows the value of having the scientific approach down too, which we definitely have in spades I think.
jfm1330 wrote: The question to ask is if you are the CEO of a company, do you want to promote it with real facts or on non facts, hope, promises? Also, higher SP does not mean better financing deal. Cytodyn were never able to finance since they left the penny stock area. Thera had to do a convertible when the SP was at 13$ per share. Why? Probably because nobody wanted to be part of a bought deal at such a high price. It is impossible to do a financing on an artificially high SP. The convertible should have been a selling signal for me back then, but I did not understand it back then.
scarlet1967 wrote: CYDY started their campaign for their one hit wonder drug based on soft data in October 2019.
The SP rose from 0.35 cents to all time high $10 US. Since then it dropped and rose few times and now it dropped heavily due to fact they have to as per agencies request run an additional study for covid19 indication.
To date they are valued almost 4 times more than THTX. So yes you can promote soft data successfully and yes if not followed by hard data there is a price to pay.
Going back to most hated/loved subject the recent financing.
Why couldn't company promote the soft data get the SP higher and close a more feasible deal?
The least they would get of it would be even temporary( in case the cancer trial hit a the brick wall) a higher SP thus better deal, more money less dilution etc.
Promoting and marketing your business can always come handy in good or bad times.