RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Volume pickup last 45 minsRelistening to the KOL presentation, one thing stood out to me, and it was how often they said that it needed to be proven on humans. It was the leitmotiv throughout the presentation. So yes, they looked very confident on the prospects, they looked confident that it will be proven on humans, but at the same time they were careful not going ahead of the facts. If the proof of concept woud be already established with very good early efficacy, the SP would not be where it is. The fact is that the market is waiting for results on humans and the management is waiting for it too. They have access to more aearly data than us, like pharmacokinetic testing up to now, so this is the reason, in my view, why they looked so optimistic. But still, the jump from mice and rats to humans often reaveal unexpected bad surprises. The good thing, is that the trial is still ongoing and now likely the first dose above the docetaxel MTD.
Wino115 wrote: Good question but there is a huge difference between niche HIV drugs where the market was not really even known, except that it was very small, and a potentially huge market for their pipeline drugs. They definitely had bad strategic advice on the market potential for Trogarzo.
But in oncology, the market for these tumors in 4L refractory is very well scoped out and even more so for doxcetaxel based therapies (of course, they are not limited to just taxol). The commercialization risks are, in my view, significantly lower than what they faced in the HIV field. We're talking peak revenues in billions, not millions, if they work on 4-6 of the tumor types. So the fact it's a well known large unmet need and the chemo bomb is still used to this day bodes well for rapidly being able to commercialize. I don't foresee the fumbles like on the HIV drugs. I think it would be hard if TH1902 works not to see it produce significant revenue quickly for THTX.
I was reading a prostate KOL call and here's all the doctor thought was needed to beat docetaxel monotherapy if you wanted to capture the prostate market. I realize that is not one in our basket trial, but just shows the bogey is really beating docetaxel monotherapy for TH1902. Anything shown beyond that will just allow them to tackle more of the refractory market. If it works, there will be a "...clear benefit..." as this KOL wants to see before using it.
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Our KOL was less impressed with Arcus’s adenosine agonist (etrumadenant) + PD-1 (zimberelimab) combination in mCRPC and wants to see a clear benefit to docetaxel monotherapy – Dr. Barata would like to see 40-50% ORR, PFS of 7-9 months, and PSA50 responses out to 6+ months for Arcus’s randomized data for etrumadenant + zimberelimab + docetaxel vs docetaxel in 1H22: Dr. Barata noted that the data are premature, and Dr. Barata would want to see randomized data in measurable disease patients with 40-50% response rate, a radiographic PFS of 7-9 months, and PSA50 responses out to 6-9 months. We note that we get randomized data for etrumadenant + zimberelimab + docetaxel vs docetaxel in 1H22.
Bucknelly21 wrote: SPCEO1 wrote: TH is on the cusp of what could be an amazing medical breakthrough in cancer, so you really don't want anything like that to happen until after we get the cancer data.
Bucknelly21 wrote: I really hope somebody just buys this company I'm just over it
no but I just think they are terrible at the non science part of business, so will they even be able to capitalize on the breakthrough if they get there? Or will they blow that up?