RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Volume pickup last 45 mins This is how I read it too. We've often stated that the CMO's name is on the Sortilin academic papers that are published. It is one of their Inhouse areas of expertise with the ex-Katana crew they hired. NASH is all outsourced to Harvard Medical/Grinspoon labs. It was certainly worth moving on NASH and getting it as far down the road as one of the very few Phase 3 trials -that is worth something for some pharma or hepatology related firm. Maybe even for them eventually. They don't have unlimited resources or time, yet.
But more than anything THTX understands what they are seeing in the cancer trial and given the luck of their target and peptide, it's addressing a massive market and can be partnered with unique PDC combos ad infinitum. If you see you have a program that is so far tracking your preclinical and backing up most of the science you discovered, you can infer an awful lot. There's still risk, but if it's moving along and ticking the boxes, the science is as you expected. The only slide they showed was the effect on metasticism -no mistake. If the PDC is affecting the degree and rate of metasticism via VasMim, then it's uniqueness and applicability across the late-stage spectrum is ground-breaking. That alone doubled what was already a large opportunity.
if you have two assets and one shows the ability to be viable in 12 months and address a market that is $12 to $20bil annually versus a 4 year path to commercialization and costs of $40mil annually, it's easy to focus on one and not the other. I don't think they would have announced today's partnership focus for NASH had they not known they are seeing what they expect in SORT1+. I have basically solely focused on oncology as the value driver over the last 12 months and looked at NASH as a solid program to initiate, but not something to get too excited about for the next few years. TH1902 has shown too many positives and keeps expanding. Pursuing half of what they are is enough for any company to stand on. They have their plate full and it's expanding with each new study. According to PL. that's what each of the new investors saw too. It was the cancer program that got their attention. While we are debating the NASH issue, it would not have been partnered without a strong indication SORT1+ is working and opens a market far larger and sooner than NASH.
jfm1330 wrote: Just a week ago I wrote that. So I told you in advance. What happened today is what I saw coming, the news is just out sooner than I expected. I listened to the call before commenting... It was clear to me, but it is even clearer now, they really think they have something groudbreaking in oncology.
In the press release it is written this:
The first half of 2021 has been marked by progress across our R&D pipeline of novel compounds. Our Phase 1 clinical trial of TH1902 for the treatment of sortilin-expressing cancers progressed as planned during the quarter and we believe that we have developed a targeted peptide-drug conjugate that may potentially transform the way cancer is treated. This is an enourmous statement and Levesque reiterated it directly from his mouth in his presentation. He is not saying it could potentially transform the way triple negativer breast cancer can be treated, or another specific cancer type. No. His statement his much broader than that it applies to how it could transform the way cancer is treated in general, and we know that many cancer type are overexpressing sortilin, and we know that this expression only intensifies as a cancer is progessing to more advanced stages.
All that to say that oncolgy is now clearly the leading program of the company. The one with the most potential, the less expensive to clinically develop, the one with the quickest path to market, and the one, by far, with the better potential for expansion, as it could work in so many cancer types and with so many PDCs variations with different cytotoxic agents. If SORT1 is as good as it looks it could be, a company like Thera will have its hands full just developing it to its complete potential. I don't see them hadling NASH on top of oncology. And if SORT1 is as good as it looks it could be, it will be a incredibly profitable asset. So why would Thera go in NASH all by itself in this case? It would not make sense. That does not mean that the NASH program could not be a success, but the investment necessary just to validate that is huge.
I think the news today is a reaction to an evolving situation. Marsolais at the end of the call confirmed that they will for sure go above the MTD of free docetaxel with TH1902. The timeline they gave for interim results in Q4 is also pointing in that direction. As I wrote here before, remember that they already have interesting data on human about the way TH1902 is behaving in the human body, and remember that they have fast track designation from the FDA. So, I think that they already know the pharmacokinetics of the drug in humans and that is boosting their confidence level for what will follow.
jfm1330 wrote: A possible NASH approval would come only in four to five years and it would cost a lot of money to get there and it will not drive the SP until some positive interim data. Oncology is a totally different ball game. If it works, the will be a flow of interim data and news, partnerships with proprietary drugs, new PDCs with generic drugs or radioisotopes, and a lot of different new clinical trials on different types of cancer, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, etc...
If oncology is really a breakthrough technology, I would not be surprised to see them drop NASH or to partner it if they can find a company willing to invest in it. We are not there yet. It will all depend on potential good results in oncology and how good these results could be.
CreatingApe wrote:
what do you think...With a marketing ace from PFIZER as our new CEO? Also do you think a life saving cancer treatment and life saving nash treatment will sell more easily than a niche drug for people who have HIV and want tighter stomachs?? Tired of the Thera cant sell drugs complaints. This is a whole other ball game now. New leader and targeting much more aggresive markets. If either drug gets approval we hit the lottery.