Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:A little update to the list of hints

[SPCEO1]

Since you suggested this item I added it to the list - #14 on the positive hints list.

scarlet1967 wrote:

The biggest hint to me is a potential IND for their PDC in Europe, that would double their market.
They still have an employee in Europe dealing with clinical trials. The title is clinical project manager. As per IV push the ongoing trial is in the US locations.

SPCEO1 wrote: Please feel free to make suggestions for other hints that are worth noting here.

THTX Hints
Positive Hints:

1. The decision to partner NASH may have been the biggest hint so far as they seemingly waited until they had some significant evidence from the cancer trial before making that announcement. If they knew cancer was a dud, the chances of them partnering NASH and leaving themselves with just Egrifta and Trogarzo to work on seems low.  Additionally, the move to make cancer the centerpiece of their investor communications is another similar hint the outlook for cancer is positive.
2. The phase 1a has not been stopped for safety issues and is well into some pretty hefty doses at the moment. Perhaps there have been some safety issues during the trial but none have been announced and none have been significant enough to end the trial. It also suggests the patients are tolerating the higher doses of TH-1902 well, which in turn means the probability of seeing efficacy is rising.
3. The company is planning an R&D Day investor event, which seems like an unlikely choice if the phase 1a trial was throwing off discouraging information.
4. At the Canaccord Growth Stock conference, THTX’s CEO made many very optimistic statements about cancer, including “it is only a matter of time” before we see good results in the trial and that the “stock price is ridiculously low” given the opportunities THTX has. He also said if the phase 1a trial data is “spectacular” the FDA may want them to make alterations to their current phase 1b trial plans.
5. In pre-clinical work, TH-1902 had fairly spectacular results, including having an effect on colorectal cancer (if I recall correctly) on which docetaxel by itself did not have any impact on. The recently published article in Cancer Science highlighted these impressive pre-clinical results in TNBC.
6. The FDA granted TH-1902 its Fast Track Designation even before the drug entered the clinic, a rarity.
7. Soleus, an institutional investor with an expertise in cancer drugs has become the largest shareholder in THTX
8. The studies the company released on vascular mimicry and metastasis indicate TH-1902 may be having a positive impact via clogging up the cancer cell’s sortilin receptors and thereby disrupting the cancerous cells ability to grow.
9. THTX’s hiring of certain professionals with clinical expertise as well as with proficiency in organizing partnership agreements seem to indicate the company has something positive going on in cancer and is looking to build on it.
10. Given how deep they are now into the phase 1a trial, THTX now has enough pharmacokinetic data to know how TH-1902 is working in humans versus their pre-clinical animal models. Since the trial has not stopped and the company keeps taking actions that seem to suggest the trial is going well, this may effectively be a hint that they like what they are seeing on this front in the phase 1a trial. They also are likely now in a position to see how much free Docetaxel is present in people with high sortilin expressing tumors versus those without such tumors which should also be helpful in understanding if TH-1902 is working as expected and in-line with their pre-clinical work.
11. THTX’s CEO stated on an investor conference call the phase 1a trial results have been in-line with what they saw in their pre-clinical work. If this is an accurate statement, it is just what we want to hear.
12. THTX’s Chief Medical Officer indicated the progression to new patients on higher dosages in the phase I trial was running as expected at every 3-4 weeks. They also added new sites at the time one would expect if the dosing was progressing as planned. If the phase 1a is moving forward as expected, it raises the odds for a good outcome.
13. 3 of the 4 testing sites are among the best cancer centers in the world, highlighting the prominence the test is getting. The lead investigator from MD Anderson is also indicative of strong medical interest in this trial.
14. Recent indications that the next phase of testing may include European locations is also a noteworthy hint that what they are seeing thus far in the phase 1a trial is leading the company to be optimistic about the future of TH 1902.

Negative Hints:

1. The company has not shared any important data from the phase 1a trial yet, which may indicate they have both positive and negative developments in the trial and they are seeking more information before they reveal any of them. Since it is an open label trial, they can reveal whatever they want whenever they want to. They have said they want to do things “right’ and prove any findings they might have are not just anecdotal.
2. THTX’s stock price has not yet shown much of a positive reaction to its cancer (or its NASH) prospects which seems odd given the broad potential of TH-1902 in fighting various types of cancer. The market is not yet buying that TH-1902 is a legitimate drug in the fight against cancer. This may reflect the weaknesses THTX has historically had in getting its message out to investors or it may be a function of THTX’s narrative on cancer so far being unconvincing to investors (partly, or maybe fully, do the lack of human data).
3. Outside of Soleus, few other institutional investors have taken a position in the stock and those who have picked up holdings of THTX have only taken small positions. This likely reflects the lack of good analyst coverage of THTX, itself a negative hint, and the fact that THTX has not been very active on the academic or investor conference circuits with regard to its cancer opportunity.
4. While there has been no insider selling, there has also been only small amounts of insider buying. If what THTX has in cancer is so great, insiders should have a greater understanding of that than anyone else. But they also have a better understanding of t he risks as well, so perhaps those are greater than we currently understand.
5. There has been virtually no media or drug industry “buzz” about TH-1902. TH-1902 was developed at a lower rated Canadian college by a Quebec-based college professor known more for his helpful health hints column in a local Montreal newspaper (to be fair, he has more than 40 years’ experience as a molecular biologist and has formed two companies based off his scientific findings during his career). It would be a shocker if something that would change the way cancer is treated came from such a humble source.  
   
    

Harder to Decipher Hints:

1. THTX set up an ATM facility to potentially raise new funds. Does this mean they expect good results from the cancer phase 1a to cause the stock price to jump and simultaneously their cash needs to rise due to the many opportunities good results would present them with or does it imply they plan to raise money in the hopeful run-up to the phase 1a results release because their internal look at the phase 1a results are indicating those results are not looking so great?