RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Weekly Report CardI think Levesque just opened himself a path to make better decisions. He will adapt his future actions based on the incoming facts. If I was him, I think I would use the ATM this fall or in the begining of winter only if the SP doubles or more, and not necessarilly to pay for all of NASH or all the next steps in oncology, but just to solidify the cash position. That being said, the amount I would raise would depend on how high the SP would go and its relation to the quality of the results in oncology. If the SP doubles, but the results are really spectacular, or if they think results will be spectacular in phase Ib on selected patients in specific cancers, and warrant more than twice the actual price, then I would wait.
So I don't have a definitive answer to your question, but I think the ATM was put in place because they expect something positive in oncology. This tool makes sense to raise money only if there is high demand and volume. Using the ATM without really positive news on low volume will only drive the SP down as they will use it. I think they act like a company expecting very positive results in oncology. The search for a partner in NASH is real, but at the same time the delay that it involves will allow them to decide on NASH with a better idea of where the company really stands. Maybe they will find a great deal in NASH and will partner. Maybe they will only find an OK deal, but will sign it because at that point they will be convinced that the real future of the company is in oncology. Again, many possibilities are there at the moment. I think they have a good idea of what is coming up in oncology, but they want to make important decisions after the publication of the results.
Wino115 wrote: JFM, at what average price do you analyze that an ATM offering to pay for NASH is a fair price? I have no agenda behind asking, just wondering. One reason is that we've all sort of assumed that barring some kind of spectacular efficacy, the initial price reaction to 1a data, whatever it is, has a high probability of being muted and still not enough to convince the thundering herds to jump in at any price. 1b data, if solid on efficacy, should do a bit more and certainly any solid P2 data really moves the needle. I think we've assumed that 1a data is good for release as they've said (before year end), but 1b is likely midyear to fall.
In a way, if they do see the data is moving the right way in cancer, they would owe it to shareholders to see the stock run in order to pay for NASH. In fact, if they actually do see the data move the right way they really should can the ATM, let it move up, build exceitement and then do a normal underwriting at an even higher price. If the cancel the ATM, Cantor can write their research up too. Just idle thoughts and I really don't have it yet worked out what I think would be a fair ATM price to pay for NASH.
SPCEO1 wrote: I hope it plays out just as you have laid it out here:
jfm1330 wrote: It is clear to me that the option of going for it alone is still the most likely option for the company, so to hold a KOL presentation on NASH makes sense. Also, even if they really want to partner, it is a good thing to keep the "alone" option clearly on the table. They will not give the NASH program for almost nothing. Also, as I said before, all this partnering thing is real, but at the same time it's a tactical way to gain time, waiting for the oncology results to come in. Add to that the ATM and you see that Levesque is giving himself as much tools as he can with all possibilities open. That being said, I still think that plan A is great results in oncology, sharp rise in the SP, raising money through the ATM, and going for it alone in NASH and assess the situation after 400 patients. That being said, I think they already know how things are shaping up in oncology. If it works, they should already see signs of efficacy.