RE:$3.50 Trading Range AnalysisI did hear, by the way, that one of the institutions that bought in the ONO was more of a short-termer and they traded a lot. That was the Armistice guys. Just speculating, but they were sitting on some nice profits at $3.50.
Wino115 wrote: Clearly there is a willing seller who is exiting their shares in the $3.50 range plus or minus a bit. I did an analysis below which shows that even if you were a third of the volume over the time period and participated every day based on the assumptions listed, you could have exited a 2.5mil to 8 mil share position with somewhat ease if you were disciplined. What I don't have is actual tick data for how many of the days trades were in the ranges I list, so it's an approximation. In either case, I think we can assume someone or many with shares of at least 2,300,000 or higher have been selling. On the flip side, someone seems happy to buy up to $3.60 or so and would have established a 2-2.5mil share position or added to theirs.
The first period is every day after the share hit $3.50 on 1Mar21, which was the first time it had hit $3.50 in years. The second period below that is this latest steady stream of $3.50 level since Aug 24th.
In each I look at two samples -- one is every day the High was at least over $3.50, so a day where it at least hit that level. The second is every day where the low was at least $3.44 or higher, which is sort of the level the seller seems interested in hitting bids on. I think the Low at better than $3.44 probably describes the days the seller was active better than the high at least hitting $3.50 or more. I provide the total and then one third the total, assuming the trader wouldn't want to be more than a third, which is conservative.
1. First Day High > $3.50 was 1 Mar 2021 -- This Table Data is 1Mar to 5 Nov 2021
Tot Shr Traded on Days where High Price > $3.49: 25,146,300. One Third = 8,382,100.
Tol Shr Traded on Days where Low Price > $3.44: 17,909,300. One Third = 5,969,767.
2. From Aug 24th it's Consistently Been Over $3.50 -- Table Data is 24Aug to 5 Nov 2021
Tot Shr Traded on Days where High Price > $3.49: 7,786,800. One Third = 2,595,600
Tot Shr Traded on Days where Low Price > $3.44: 7,057,300. One Third = 2,352,433
I think these share amounts show that someone being very disciplined and patient could have easily exited a rather chunky position over these periods. It could be either some of the Canadian shareholders who no longer cover healthcare or don't like the pipeline/commercialization risk split now; or it could very well be some of the new shareholders lightening up, repositioning their portfolios prior to year end, taking profits, having to make distributions or to make up for some of their losses. If their porfolios have shrunk, they may need to sell just to get it back to their risk level they originally wanted.
Who knows, but I think it's clear to see that even with these small volumes someone meaningful could have exited or entered. I am happy they were patient and didn't crush it on the way out and there is enough interest to keep it at the $3.50 level prior to milestone announcements. It does show that if there is any actual buying interest post whatever this portfolio adjustment some shareholder(s) are going through it will likely have a significant impact if the positive newsflow picks up, which we have solid reasons to believe should. Typically, portfolio repositioning finishes up around end November, very early December as volumes thin. So we likely won't have much more than 3-4 weeks hopefully. But that's a pure guess that the seller has a calendar year reason for doing what they're doing. It looks suspiciously like that is the case though.