RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:4 pm PRThe main characteristics of a lottery tickets are as follows
1-Very low nominal cost of the ticket in relation to the possible winnings
THTX paid next to nothing for the platform and you and others talk about multi billion sales
2-Only one winner for the top prize,,,,,many more for secondary prizes
3-Odds of winning the big prize is very high even for those using mathematical formulas that predict a lot of the winning numbers but fail to hit ALL of the digits to win the lottery
So low cost high risks but extremely high rewards !!!!
SPCEO1 wrote: I don't believe the convert holders have to identify themselves. And while the idea of approaching them to roll their holdings over makes sense, I don't think that happens very often.
If they dealt with the convert sooner rather than later, I suppose that is the best outcome as it takes away any concern that things suddenly go upside down for TH in ways that no one can now imagine. But I alsodo not believe cancer is a lottery ticket at this point. The FDA gave it Fast Track status while still in pre-clinical, Soleus bought in while it was still pre-clinical and one of the most in-demand scientistsin the pharmaceutical industry, the recently retired CMO of Pfizer coming off 11 cancer drug approvals and a hugely successful covid vaccine and therapeutic, joined up with TH. So, the odds of success in cancer are better than a lottery ticket from my perspective given those folks who know far more than I are lined up with TH. Moreover, TH knows right at this moment a lot about the potential efficacy of the drug in humans that we do not yet know. If cancer is progressing, the TH story will remain good enough to attract investor interest and we sholuld know if TH-1902 is progressing pretty soon. We can already safely surmise that the Sort1+ program is going to move forward in some fashion no matter what happens to TH-1902.
So, I am not going to worry too much about the convert unless there is some disastrous information that comes out about the current trial that undermines the whole Sort1+ program and the chances of that are near zero given how long the phase 1a has already gone.
palinc2000 wrote: Of course it might but the Company will not wait till next year to remove that dark cloud...I dont recall ever reading about who are the Holders of the Convert and how many are there ?
The terms could be changed by mutual agreement for all or part of the Converts with all or a few major holders .....extending the due date for x years in exchange for a combination of higher interest and lower convert price could be a solution ,,,,,,Removing that dark ckoud is a must in the short term ,,,unless of course t the Lottrery goes our way,,,,,,
SPCEO1 wrote: I would suggest that the potential for billions in cancer sales might be enough to get investors to go for a second round of converts from TH, albeit at a potentially higher interest rate due to both the lkelihood interest rates will be higher by then and due to the perceived greater risk from an early stage cancer program vs. a recently approved Trogarzo. It also helps that they have cash flow from the legacy drugs to cover the interest costs and that they easily did that with the current convert.
palinc2000 wrote: The Convert was issued when Luc was guiding for 500 million $ Trog sales ....I have no idea what will entice the market to loan 55 million USD to THTX which would all be used to repay the Convert becoming due,,,,,Is there possibility that the enticement would be based on expectations of a rising SP if Phase 1 b turns out to show much efficacy in 2 3 indications,,,,Yes of course but this is a MAJOR IF ......You know my position on the Convert which I called a big mistake less than 3 months after it was issued when it became evident that Trog sales would not materialize anywhere close to Luc s hopes,,,Paul was not dealt a very good hand with the Convert as a dark cloud and the pandemic and a HIV Nash PHase 3 which we were told just needed to be harmonized between EMA and FDA which turned out not to be the case
Paul has not yet delivered on HIS promise of higher sales and has not delivered on a Nash deal in spite of the fact that he told us that he was negotiating from a position of strength....
If he delivers soon on those 2 aspects I see the possibility of light at the end of the tunnel
Failing that our only hope will be to win the Lottery ,,,,,with just a few million spent on a clinical trial in a universe where billions are spent in the Pharma/Biotech industry to find treatments for cancers in the indications that THTX is adressing with the Sort 1 platform...I guess anything can happen but something good needs to happen and the timing is NOW
SPCEO1 wrote: On the convert, do you think the company could just take the viewpoint that if the stock price has not ascended to $14.80 by June of next year on the back of progress on cancer that the market begins to value, that they would just refinance it with another convert? If so, and it seems reasonable to consider that as an option assuming the worst case scenario plays out of the TH-1902 cancer trials turning up nothing worthwhile, then it pretty much changes the financing question in big way. Also, NASH will likely only proceed with a partner (or via some other form of unusual funding) as the threat to start the trial in early 2022 no matter what was likely just a negotitiating ploy. They likely have enough funding already to start the phase 1b and they would see efficacy results from that pretty quickly, so they could, and probably should, postpone any fundrainsing for future cancer trials until they see if they have something interesting in cancer (and they may already know they have something very interesting in cancer based on what they are seeing in the phase 1a results).
So, from my perspective, the cash situation is far less dire that you think. Let's hope the company sees it the same way! In the end, if cancer looks great, then partnership money will be easily available and the whole issue of raising money will be less of an issue because they can access it via partnership deals if desired or a combination of share sales at higher price points (due to the favorable cancer prospects) and partnership money. If cancer works, everything is easier. We should know some important evidence about that before too much longer as the phase 1a has to be close to its end at this point and it has gone on long enough to show some efficacy in those patients who had sortilin overexpressing tumors and lived long enough to measure an impact.
If TH-1902 bombs out in the trials, there is still a road forward in cancer. If there is promising research still being investigated, there will still be some hope for TH and therefore ways to acquire the needed funds.
It will be interesting to see what the new corporate presentation includes or does not include and we should be getting the new one soon as they will have to post one prior to the meetings with larger shareholders in a little moer than a week.
palinc2000 wrote:
Cash is king but unfortunately all the cash on hand is owed to holders of the convert with a shortfall of over 20 million !!
Nash clinical trial cost is over 100 million and Sort 1 platform in the tens of millions at a minimum.Add to that cash for working capital ...... The best case scenario was a partnering deal for Nash ,,, fantastic results in Phase 1 with a SP north of 10Usd combined to a substantial rise in revenues ftom legacy drugs....None of the above have yet materialized ...I am not throwing the towell as I dont see much downside from here but I see more and more limited options for the company to dig itself out of the hole....At the time of the options grants on Dec 1 I said that the only acceptable ethical reason to grant options in Dec rather than March /April was if a take over was in the cards ..... Of course not many here would be happy with a take over in the short term but in the end this could be the best solution for a company starving for cash
Wino115 wrote: If capital is raised prior to trial news and at a low price, we won't be the only disgusted shareholders. Soleus's two largest holdings have been crushed -- Bioatla is down form $40 to $12 and C3 is down from $50 to 30. They will not want to stump up more money and they will want to see this company maximize the share price, not crush it. They are now on our side of the equation.
The ideal scenario is 1a or 1b interim read gets share closer to $7 -$10. Do the ATM. Finish 1b and plan the various Phase 2's you are going for as registrational, and then get the full offering out with a solid list of good banks with Phase 2 info and hopefully at an even better level. If they do anything at these sub $5/$7 levels, it will be reflected in the board meeting probably.
houbahop wrote: From November 23, 2021 PR:
Theratechnologies Announces Renewal of Shelf Prospectus and Registration Statement; At-The-Market Facility to be Extended
"...provide for the potential offering in Canada and the United States of up to an aggregate of US $150,000,000 of common shares, preferred shares, subscription receipts, warrants, debt securities and units from time to time over a 25-month period after Canadian securities regulatory authorities have issued a receipt for the final short form base shelf prospectus. This shelf prospectus is intended to give the Company the flexibility to take advantage of financing opportunities when market conditions are favourable."...
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/11/23/theratechnologies-announces-renewal-of-shelf-prospectus-and-registration
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I have a feeling the market is preparing itself for another deluge of shares and warrants.
I might be wrong but the $4.00 support level has been broken and there's not much in the way before $2.50