Wino115 wrote: I think they have a number of options still and which path they choose comes down to timing and some efficacy signs. I would have to re-listen, but I think in the Q&A on the question about how "soon to market" would accelerated approval work, the response said something about announcing any early efficacy signs, meaning they wouldn't wait until the end of the basket trial and they would discuss what they learn with factual human RECIST data. They have a huge incentive to do so --huge.
They also said early on (I think in the intro) that they wouldn't do anything on a JV until they have data, preliminary or otherwise, on efficacy so as to get the best deal.
Showing any efficacy is just huge at this point. Not sure why anyone bothers looking at Trogarzo, sales, or NASH as they are not at all the lynchpin for their strategy to work. With any efficacy, even smallish since we now know safety looks exceptional, they have 3-4 paths to deal with financing. They can do a bit of ATM to those institutions looking for volume, they can do proper offering, they can issue debt to pay off convert, etc... Everything comes in to play, financing-wise, with any advancement of TH1902. If you start it in May and have some patients on 2-3-4 cycles and measure the response, you can discuss that in the July to Oct timeframe if they meet their timeline Then you have both JV money (or at least know it is highly likely to be there by spring 2023) and debt you can use if you want, let alone ATM or offering opportunity. Essentially, all these questions will likely be answered in summer to fall I think.
jeffm34 wrote: Now down to 12 month cash runway. Cash required in next financing will be at least $100M to look after the convert and finance the phase 1b/2 cancer trials. (Any licensing deals could be a potential source of up front cash as well) The race now is can they can get any meaningful trial data before the next offering? Someone mentioned on the call that efficacy data could be available towards the end of the year. If that is the case as opposed to what Paul said, then we are in trouble. Remember last year at this time and you all were saying we'd see efficacy data by the summer of 2021. I think it's safe to say your predictions on how fast this company moves are wildly optimistic. I'm hoping we might see something by Q3 but that might be too optimistic as well. Regardless, who is going to buy any significant amount of TH stock knowing a major dilutive financing is coming at any moment ? The delays in the phase 1a trial will likely mean the offering is done near todays prices and not $5+