RE:RE:RE:RE:The REAL reason THTX stock price is declining.TH clearly understands how important TH-1902 is to the company and the stock price. If they had unambiguously good, scientifically backed data in hand, then we would already know it. They are early in their phase 1b trial - we just do not know exactly how early because they have not shared whether any phase 1a patients actually did roll into the phase 1b and when that happened, if it happened. So, if you assume none did roll over, the earliest we would hear anything positive is early August. If there are not any positive results to tell us about, then we likely will not hear anything until they have a positive result. Not knowing how fast the trial is enrolling, we cannot be sure when the odds start to favor some good result being found in at least one of the patients but the odds should grow as August moves into September that they see a success assuming the drug actually works. It would be reat if the drug worked on everyone who took it but that is just not how these things normally work. Moreover, it is worth remembering Juniper88's description of what actually happens to a patient with late stage cancer in one of these trials. It is not easy to get a patient across the finish line. This is a good moment to alert those praying for Juniper88's wife that she really could use your prayers at this time.
Now, I expect TH will report 2Q financials on or around 7/14. I believe they must report by 7/15 but that is a Friday and they do not typcially report on Fridays. This could be a non-event or a big event for TH shareholders, depending on how they decide to inform us about the status of the trial. Of course, if any patients did rollover from the 1a trial, there is a slight chance we could hear good news before they report 2Q results. My best guess is they continue to tell us nothing of note if they have not seen any perliminary indications of efficacy by then. If there were any rollover patients from the first three in the phase 1a at 300mg's and they did not see preliminary signs of efficacy by late June, I doubt they would share that with us. Since there is obviously a fundraising on the horizon, my best guess is bad news will be squelched with the hope of being able to refocus the market on any good news when they have it. So, if there are no early signs of preliminary efficacy, we will likely hear the phase 1b is proceedeing as planned and TH is very excited about its prospects.
It is worth noting that if TH-1902 does not produce any signs of preliminary efficacy, Paul will be in a difficult spot as the company may no longer be able to afford his large compensation package as they re-tool their cancer efforts and face the convert refinancing. The fact they ahve not yet refinanced the convertible may be the best piece of evidence we have they are confident about TH-1902. Board member Holler's $100,000 insider purchase in early May, which was well in excess of what he was required to purchase asa new borad member, is another positive indicator. But until they actually tell us they have scientifically proven TH-1902 is at least efficacious in a preliminary sense, it isn't. And if they don't have that scientifically backed evidence yet, they are just going to keep quiet and not tell us about all the troubles they have faced in their trials so far (which is normal biotech behavior as all trials are likely a mixture of science and mayhem, particulalry with such already critucally ill trial subjects).
My best guess is that the 2Q financial results will not eliminate the suspense that always builds quickly as investors know they are approaching a critical period in a drug trial. While TH is incentivized to hide bad trial info (there is almost always some bad trial info in any trial and with a financing looming, the incentive is even greater to only release bad ifo if there is better good info to go along with it). The wait is maddening but it could be rewarding. Of course, it could also not be, which is why it is especially maddening to live with the uncertainty involved. The good news is TH at elast has the two commercial products and will not hit the same financial wall many biotechs are facing now.
Wino115 wrote: It's the issue I mentioned to IR about how the inability to engage a larger subset of investors in a convincing thesis, or to explain why their science is worthy of attention even if the news flow is slow, has created a one-way market situation. The problem becomes a nightmare for shareholders if only a few investors bail and send it down, whether an advisor change or boredom. It's an effort, but you have to do it if public, to proactively create a case with factual backup and not just saying "we feel positive" or "everything looks great". Explain the whys behind that with more detail if you do feel that way.
I recall them saying it would soon change and there would be a slew of information released rather frequently as spring went in to summer and fall. So far, that hasn't been the case. They still have summer and fall, so hopefully that changes. Market needs some serious demand amplifiers and science data. The discourse has not seemed to really change much over the last year. Maybe they need another LSA KOL type event around Sort1 and POC if they get there.
Bucknelly21 wrote: Agree with all of this, not to mention they keep everyone in the dark almost religiously. They clearly don't understand how to engage and create an investment thesis and never have, which is why the people that have owned thera so long constantly re-afirm this. Only a homerun in oncology will be able to make a difference at this point