NASHMy investment theory for Thera before the bad news in oncology was based on positive results in phase Ib, and the idea that if it did not work, the commercial business was good enough to justify a 3$ CAN stock price. Is still think that the SP will go up to 3$ at some point, even if they drop oncology completely and nothing happen in NASH.
So for a while I totally discarded NASH because it's there since so long now and no partner seems to be interested, or Thera is asking too much, or Thera is unable to pay for a part of the trial. I also thought that one reason why no partnership was signed is the patent situation with Egrifta. I thought it was not strong enough for a big pharma to invest a lot in it.
That being said, after I read the story of Semaglutide (Wegovy, Ozempic, Rybelsus) and its many long acting formulations and two applications, diabetes type 2 and obesity. It made me reconsider my position a bit. Add to that the story of Exenatide, another GLP-1 analog with a once a week injection (Bydureon).
I am not saying a partnership in NASH is a sure thing, but I can see a big pharma willing to make a NASH trial with F8, while working on a patented long acting formulation like a once a week injection. Developping such a long acting formulation would extend patent protection until 2045 or something like that. It would also make this drug much more appealing for chronic use. Subcutaneous injection once a week is really easy to sustain on the long term, contrary to daily injections.
All that to say that there seems to be a valid case that can be made to a big pharma. Add to that the long term safety track record Egrifta has with nothing negative about promoting cancers. From the outside, it seems a big pharma could be interested because the risk/reward is favourable. Yes the trial would likely take three years to be completed, but you don't start from scratch. With the submission and approval process it would likely take five years, but developping new drugs from scratch takes much longer. Again I am not very upbeat about the probability of a NASH partnership, just not as negative as before, but maybe it's wishful thinking on my part because I am in a bad position as a shareholder of Thera.