RE:RE:Here is how I see thingsWell there are lots of potential options with the restarted trial, but it would help to get it restarted! Perhpas they will announce that tomorrow as part of their presentation to the Canaccord conference at 1PM.
So, while we may know nothing on October 31st about the trial THTX and Marathon will certainly be aware of all progress up to that point. It is likley that all six patients may have had a first scan by then. If progress is being seen, that will offer Marathon encouragement that their warrants could make their loan turn out to be one of the better ones they ever made. They would also know a lot about side-effects by that point too. They will also know if THTX has moved into a cash flow positive situation by that point. If these things all are trending favorably, then my guess is Marathon just extends the 10/31 deadline. If not, they may well force THTX to shut down all or most of the TH-1902 program to generate the cash flow needed to get their $60 million back. But it would help to get the trial restarted!
I see almost no scenario where they pause the trial again. It is either showing some promise or it is shut down.
Now, other scenarios could include Marathon knows THTX is close to signing a partnership deal with someone on some aspect of the Sort1+ platform and they just gave them time to get that done because the upfront cash payment would get them over the $20 million mark and, once they are over that mark, they are likely to stay over it as they will begin generating positive free cash flow soon.
There are likely a lot of other possibilites too that we cannot anticipate with the info at our disposal. But Marathon has access to everything about THTX and they just gave the company a cost-free pass on a loan covenant violation. So, assuming they are smart people, which seems like a fair assumption, Marathon knows something good might occur between now an 10/31 which would benefit their warrants and make their loan results turn out spectacularly. Why else would they give THTX a pass.
And why would THTX do the reverse split versus delisting from NASDAQ unless they knew there was a good chance that NASDAQ listing might come in handy sometime soon?
We don't know everything but we do know THTX is not going bankrupt anytime soon and we can tell from the actions of people who do know everything that there is a decent chance of something good happening.
Also, at these low prices, the option situation with Marsolais and Lafond is taken off the table as they will likely let them expire worthless if they are able to act on them soon (of course the stock could have a meaningful reboud once the seller(s) run out of shares to sell and they could be in the money again).
juniper88 wrote: I agree with the part that this is an institution liquidating at any price. But I am not too sure about the TH1902 part. The trial still has not restarted. It is extremely unlikely any results (that would give Marathon any assurances of the TH1902 trial eventually becoming a success) would come out before Oct 31st. That is only 12 weeks away!! Generally first scan for a patient would be after 6 weeks, and second scan 12 weeks. And just because you are now dosing every 1 week doesn't change the scanning schedule. So even if they has enrolled their first tomorrow that patient's second scan wouldn't come until after Oct 31st. And that is just one patient, it wouldn't proof anything. I believe the TH1902 trial is just a free lottery ticket for Marathon.
To me, more likely THTX has to either have $20 million on Oct 31 or least be moving in the right direction to get another extension. And honestly, I don't know how THTX would be capable of doing this. Maybe by pausing the trial again and that is why we don't see if being restarted?