RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:I don't know what it takesAnother thing to consider is how a change in leadership could impact the situation with Marathon. Would it make them more inclined to bankrupt THTX if THTX somehow violated another financial covenant during any confusion following a leadership change? While the failed NASH and cancer efforts combined with the massively dilutive financings have already functionally bankrupted the stock, there is still a very good chance of seeing significant appreciation in the stock as the Marathon debt is paid down. If we never get that chance for partial redemption because of some mistake as leadership is turned over, that would be another unfortunate turn of events for THTX. I suspect this is a quite low risk but one worth thinking about.
If Zwick and Arena were left to constitute a new board and decide what to do with Levesque and Dubuc, and when to do it, chances are another violation of a Marathon covenant could be avoided but Levesque and Dubuc might be spending mroe time looking for new job opportunities before they were officially relieved of their duties and take their eye of the THTX ball if this were to happen.
Also, you have to wonder if Arena and Zwick would take up the charge from shareholders to reconstitute the board and replace maangement or whther they might just resign as well. Zwick would likely say to himself, "this is not what I thought I was signing up for".
These are unlikely scenarios but they should not be ignored either.
SPCEO1 wrote: I could influence about 15% of the vote, so that is not enough to change anything if the institutional shareholders all vote for management. Remember, most shareholders do not even bother to vote, so it comes down to the institutions and the evidence is overwhelming they vote in favor of management except in exceptional circumstances. We know IQ is going to vote in favor, so that gives THTX a 20% head start. That was a big part of why they did the last offering. Mathmatically, that lead could be overcome but practically, I am not sure there is any chance of overcoming it.
Now, everyone should still vote their conscience, regardless of the outcome. Voting against is a negative thing and I would just as soon avoid that, personally. That is just my strong bias. Clearly, however, the situation with THTX qualifies as an exceptional circumstance. So I continue to consider how I will vote the shares I directly control. I mentioned that those intending to vote for Zwick and Tea only should consider instead voting for Zwick and Arena since Arena would provide some continuity and medical background on the chance that TH-1902 actually amounts to something while Tea might at some point face a decision where IQ's interests and other shareholder's interest diverge.
As I have thought a little more about this, and I admittedly have not been focusing on it at all, voting just for Arena and Zwick seems like a sensible strategy no matter the situation but I welcome anyone else's wisdom on this. Should TH-1902 fail in the current trial and nothing come from the other irons THTX purportedly has in the fire as well, then change at the board level would be justified. Previously, I thought if TH-1902 did have success, then it might make sense to keep the team in place and let them try to resurrect the company on the back of that success. But, since the trust factor has largely evaporated with the current board, CEO and CFO, I have to think that if TH-1902 did show promise, we might want a new team in there to maximize the opportunity, even if they have to do a lot of catch up on all the issues surrounding TH-1902 and the Sort1+ platform. Since we are not likely to know the TH-1902 outcome before the AGM, we have to make a early decision now on who we would want to lead the company if it does turn out to work.
So, please share your insights into what the best approach might be. But you probably should not spend too much time thinking about it as the chance of the vote going against THTX is pretty small. We are likely stuck with the current leadership for now.
Lee430 wrote: Rusty, I'm sure you have an extensive Rolodex, maybe you could put a bug in a couple of key people's ear and we could get the votes needed to at least make some change.