Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Gilead

[palinc2000]

https://investors.gilead.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gilead-announces-investigational-long-acting-hiv-1-capsid

[Wino115]

So 2 to 3 years away, no safety data yet and will be third product for what appears to be a rather small market.  Can't see them wanting to spend a whole lot of time or money on that, but go for it.  Thankfully THTX will be well on its way in other more profitable areas by then.   

[palinc2000]

''A third product for a relatively small market"" Why would GILD spend time amd money on  drug for which the market is small? Maybe the market is much larger than what Trogarzos sales have shown so far ,,,,,,I think Levesque is still convinced that this is the case

[Wino115]

He may be, but I put more credence in the actual numbers.  Don't get me wrong, I hope THTX finds better ways to convince patients or doctors to use their drug, but until I see it in their numbers (or the combination of theirs and Fostemsavir) I have to think it's smaller than those market studies showed for any number of reasons. Would it be fair to say they've now been selling

[scarlet1967]

The value drivers for the company are the R&D programs having said that the sales of both drugs is still an important part of their operations and bread earner in the short to medium term. If company hasn't done it yet they should offer free in home infusion services for Trogarzo to gain some traction, the drug is expensive and inconvenient, many patients due to covid19 avoid hospitals

[ggg088]

Both R & D and marketing need financing support, they must raise enough funding to increase revenue and meet R&D investment. So key point is still to get more institutional investors invloved in.

[SPCEO1]

They need the share price to be higher to attract buying of the stock from institutions. A sub $5 share price and a market cap of $175 million means no institutions are even going to look at TH as a stock to potentially purchase. Now, the risk is the company adds new instutional holders, who are mesmerized by the cancer opportunity, via selling shares at a low price in a direct placement to those

[scarlet1967]

I totally agree, they have shown a lot of confidence in particularly NASH protocol and early financing would be a direct contradiction of that so not only an early dilution put a cap on the SP in short term but also shows the company is not confident about the outcome of the program, by that I don't mean only the approval of the IND but also successful outcome of the approved protocol which

[qwerty22]

There is so little appetite for THTX pre-fda decision is it even possible to get the necessary interest?

[SPCEO1]

I suspect they have institutions that are very interested in the cancer drug and would be willing to buy stock from them at low prices to get access to the stock without having to push the stock pricec up by acquiring it in the market. Just a guess based off of what has been going on in that cancer space. I could be totally wrong - just a guess. But I do know they have spoken about a need to

[ggg088]

Spce01, can we suppose once the Thtx price reach up to $5, it would fly over $10 because institutional investors will start to purchase the shares?

[SPCEO1]

No. getting over $5 would help but it is no guarantee that the stock would just jump higher from that point. It would be tied to the progress the company was making. The fundamentals always win in the end and without good progress on NASH or cancer, the stock will not be soaring anywhere since Egrifta for Lipo and Trogarzo is not likely to drive the share price higher at this point. 

[Wino115]

I suppose they could go the convertible route again too if they get the price up a bit.  Do a $100-200mil deal, call the old one.  Maybe you could get a strike of $7-10-ish and a 5% rate.  Not bad for $200mil of borrowing.  It would at least limit the dilution some from issueing at $4-6 level. 

[SPCEO1]

I could easily see something like that happening. I am not sure I like it but it is better than a straight equity offering.

[mikeq113]

I would be hugely disappointed if THTX were to do anything to dilute shares at this price and before a decision from the FDA and EMA to at least see what kind of reaction we would get on the heels of an approval. As someone else here mentioned, this would be entirely contradictory to the confident stance they've taken on the strength of their application and would certainly signal to

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[ggg088]

Can we suppose that Thtx will push up the SP if they want to dilute shares?

[SPCEO1]

I trust management is always trying to push the share price up. But they don't totally control the process of setting the stock's price. Broad-based insider buying is something that is helpful and this has happened before at least one previous stock offering that I recall. I am not sure I would call this latest bit of insider buying broad based as the two new directors were pretty much

[scarlet1967]

If you look at the alternative site infusion, link below there are several conditions to get approved for the program and probably added costs. Company needs to remove all these hurdles so patients can have easy access to Trogarzo. https://www.uhcprovider.com/content/dam/provider/docs/public/policies/index/commercial/provider-administered-drugs-soc-01012021.pdf

[qwerty22]

It may be that this is just the way you get new anti-HIV drugs approved. You work them up in a population with unmet medical need like MDR, prove their anti-viral activity, get approval and on the market, then start to trial them in a way that moves them up the treatment hierarchy towards an option as a first line treatment. A similar development path that cancer drugs take. The initially MDR