Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Mackie Report is out

[SPCEO1]

It is a big report that I don't have time to read at the moment but he raises the target price to $3.95 US as he gives some credit for NASH. More later.

[SPCEO1]

Mackie's report is 44 pages, so a lot of effort went into it. But here is how he reached his target price: "Our valuation for TH (US$3.95/share) is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology that factors in the company’s commercial segment and the NASH project. To value TH’s commercial segment, we applied a 2.9x 2021 EV/Sales multiple to our new 2021 total revenue estimate of US$77

[qwerty22]

So 10% success rate might be what you put on a drug initiating Ph1, with no safety record other than in animals, no MOA, no hint at activity in the target indication. If you considered this a mid-Ph2 drug you might give it 30-40% success rate, with an established strong safety record 50%. If it was starting Ph3 from a standard and promising Ph2 program you might give it a 60%+ chance of success.

[Wino115]

Well at least someone's valuing it now. As we know, that 10% is a bit of a finger-in-the-wind kind of number to just get the price target he wants and not have something crazy like the Cannacord guy. Not sure what factors would get him to move that probability, but good to know 10% is roughly $1.70. What it means though is that if and when he's ready to add cancer, the revenues will be

[scarlet1967]

Yet another bogus report specially the valuation of the NASH phase 3 is ridiculous, NASH sales $600 million in 2027? Even RBC projected $1 billion? I guess none of these analyst are realizing it is a multi-billion dollars market with growing prevalence, a silence killer add to that the comorbidity of NASH and other condition costing Health care system in the US as per NASH council over $600

[scarlet1967]

https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html

[Jasonthehumble]

I wouldnt worry about Mackie's analysis of THTX. At least their price target is double where it is at now. If it hits their price target, they will reanalyze their thesis and give it a more generous evaluation. We really need more investor exposure to this stock at this point. Any analysis of the company would help.

[scarlet1967]

You are correct this is the results of miscommunication between the company and market. Put beside the market size, drug pricing etc and just look at cost of the phase 3 as per the chart if the cost was $400 million the company should be valued at over 1 billion now even with post approval phase 4 the cost for NASH could be near $80 to $90 million(the company will be able to lunch the drug after

[palinc2000]

This is just a politically correct report,,,He could not put a too high PT after telling Dubuc that the Offering would be a hard sell.... I think there will be  frequent upgrades to the PT as time advances  quote=SPCEO1]Mackie's report is 44 pages, so a lot of effort went into it. But here is how he reached his target price: "Our valuation for TH (US$3.95/share) is based on

[Jasonthehumble]

So why isnt TH a $10 stock? Why are some biotech companies given very generous evaluations and some like TH are not?

[SPCEO1]

There is no rational explanation for this phenomonon. I have not had a chance to check closely, but I do not think the analyst included any valuation comparison of TH to other NASH stocks. That seems like a pretty basic thing to overlook, but hey, TH itself will not highlight it in their corporate presentations either. You almost get the feeling they don't want the stock to be properly valued.