Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Gilead oncology

[Wino115]

Gilead reported light earnings as HIV drugs didn't grow and Remdesivir shrank.  Recall they bought Immunomedics for the breast cancer ADC Trodelvy.  There ongoing breast cancer trial is called TROPICS-2 and it's an ADC targeting Trop-2 but using that SN-38 toxin. Here's the Barclays comment mentioning even if statistically significant they don't see the data leading to clinical use. So it brings in to question Gileads strategy to grow oncology.  

"While we think TROPICS-02 will likely reach a statistically significant result, we're less sure of clinical significance and near-term SERD read-outs could complicate the HR+ metastatic breast commercial opportunity. We acknowledge investors may view the downside as limited here with the stock trading <10x on 2021E EPS, however, we think this misses the potential negative implications and perception surrounding Gilead's oncology strategy if TROPICS-02 data doesn't result in an approval, particularly with minimal EPS growth on the horizon over the mid-term."

[qwerty22]

Some pretty divergent views on Trodelvy. Our friend Abrahams at RBC earlier this year had them capturing close to 100% of the mTNBC market. As this guy hints at I think what most generates opinion on this drug is the $21 bil Gilead paid for it and whether that is justified and whether that tells you something about the good/bad decisions Gilead's leadership are making.

[SPCEO1]

From our perspective, we want GILD's Immunomedics purchase to turn out great as that will help other management teams to spend wildly on partnerships with TH's cancer platform.  

[qwerty22]

Yes we want the targeted drug approach to have winners. (We want NASH to have winners too) The other thing the Barclay guys highlight there is SERDs which seem to be a new class of drugs for treating breast cancer. It seems like half the oncology trials you read about are for the hard to treat end of the breast cancer spectrum. There is an awful lot of data being generated in that space and

[SPCEO1]

With cancer, we also want some of these drugs to be shown to work well but it is better for TH if they also have side-effects since by unitiing any of these new drugs to TH's peptide, the efficacy may be further improved and the side-effects greatly diminished. What we don't want to see (from a commercial perspective only - we would really like to see this from a human perspective) is a

[scarlet1967]

It will be interesting to see what  happens to Pepaxto  the other PDC with a price tag at 19k per course of the treatment. As of now it’s not clear the mortality is related to lack of safety or efficacy but despite the risks the drug still is prescribed to late stage multiple myeloma patients. Regardless of the reason for mortality it would be interesting to see whether FDA let

[Wino115]

Your comment brings up an interesting revenue modeling thought that I hadn't contemplated before.  We usually look at drug revenues as the annual price for the drug or therapy, regardless of it's taken once or 12 times.  The chemo cancer models are generally based on the typical annual cycle based on experience.  From what I gather, in things like TNBC, a typical course of

[scarlet1967]

Also it will be high uptake and retention rate for late stage cancers.

[SPCEO1]

And, therefore, it is not hard to imagine the rush of companies with chemo drugs looking to partner with TH. What partnering model will TH likely use in cancer? Whatever it might be, it will certainly produce a lot of cash flow. 

[qwerty22]

You need to see the drugs profile first. This is getting way ahead of things.

[SPCEO1]

Clearly, that is getting well ahead of the situation. But it is also clear this is what TH is aiming for given their their trademarked description of a "SORT1+ technology" platform. So, even if the science is not there yet, it sure seems like it is heading in that direction and contemplating what success might look like is what investment analysts try to do, and good ones try t o have it

[jfm1330]

Why some here are still bringing this melphalan flufenamide (Pepaxto) as a good comparative to TH1902 just because the company making it calls it a peptide drug conjugate? It is not a PDC, it has nothing in common with TH1902. This drug is and act like a small molecule that is a prodrug. It has no specificity, it diffuses in every cells, that's why it could have toxicity problems. Again, it

[qwerty22]

Here is an attempt to understand the Pepaxto situation, as they say more needs to be released to know exactly what is going on. It could be safety, it might not be. https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/trial-results/oncopeptides-gives-one-hand-and-takes-away-other I find it crazy they are respecting the conference embargo rule and not putting out the details now.