Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

A concern?

[SPCEO1]

I have heard THTX had good meetings with major shareholders post their third quarter results. Should any of those shareholders want to pickup additional shares of THTX, they would likely only do so through an offering. Could THTX sell shares to them via the ATM facility at these low prices. We know companies always find it pretty difficult to turn down alluring new money like this. I would be interested to know how people here feel about such a development should it occur. It would be good to let the company know before they pull the switch on such a deal if they are indeed considering it. We should have a voice in such a decision and we should let them hear it. Now, I am just speculating based on rather narrow info, but I suspect this is a risk. So, let's just assume a deal at $2 per share for 5 million new shares raising the company a new $10 million in equity capital just for argument's sake. 

To me, doing such a deal would be quite worrisome as it would seem to indicate the data on TH-1902 is not looking good enough to hold off and do a deal once that data is available. Or, perhaps it indicates the phase 1b is going to take a lot longer than they are currently intimating and they need to boost the cash coffers to bridge until they get there. 

On the positive side, we would likely get a new analyst report from Cantor if the ATM  was used. But what can a new analyst say before we get phase 1b info.

[SABBOBCAT]

This would be the nail in the coffin for me. I would sell everything and call it a day.  Management says they have a strong hand then goes and dilutes at $2... no thanks.  If they cant make it to a poit where they can announce P1 results after the ONO, refinancing the debt, and having two revenue generating products then there is a HUGE problem.  Even if they had a strong

[yureja55]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[canadapiet]

With TH, you never know.......! But why should they do such a deal for those "peanuts"....????? Be honest, 10 M $ ???? Or they wait or they do a deal for 100 M$ !!!  So selling 50 M shares at 2 USD!! And that would tell the market they have nothing in oncology yet and it would take way longer then predicted (is allready so...) to get some results out. For now (and for me),

[Trogarzon]

You are only worth the value of your last deal... I can assure you that I would sell every single shares me and my friends own so about 2% of the float.

[Biobob]

I have a feeling that this is just what's in store for us.  In any case whatever the given reason it would mean only one thing they had no  other choice.  You can speculate what having no other choice at this juncture means... longer, more uncertainties, unable to access remainder of the 100M.  I'm talking for myselft but instead of diluting me or margaging the future

[Biobob]

Unless like a major US broker or institution picks up the big bunch of shares and that they follow trough with 10$+ targets.  They did a deal @ 1.95$ in the past that went to 10$ afterwards.. but they stock was coming from 20 cents... not 5$... 

[Biobob]

Their only shot at a deal would be the ATM with some highly motivate buyer.  There just is no market for their shares otherwise in this environment.  

[PWIB123]

SPCEO1, this would make no sense and would be a terrible idea.  THTX just told us on the conference call a few weeks ago that they had enough cash for a year.  Plus, they have a pathway via the loan to unlock more cash.  Furthermore, it was stated that they expect to see efficacy from at least one cancer type soon.  Selling more shares at this price would be a flip flop of what

[Biobob]

The always took the money when it was available and never waited at the last moment (less than a year cash on hand) to raise money... and that whatever they said the day, the week or the month before that.  That is the way biotech works.  I trust them for making shure of one thing.. they don't run out of cash to spend or waste in the case of projects I don't need to mention.

[Lee430]

In my simple mind spending whatever is necessary to engage retail is just good ROI.

[SPCEO1]

On its face, it would be a terrible idea but we would need to hear what their justification for it would be before drawing a final conclusion. But it would need to be a solid justification where the benefits of rewarding a large shareholder with bargain basement stock has a near immediate and tabgible payoff to other shareholders.  When companies say they have enough cash for the next year

[SABBOBCAT]

SPCEO, why are you bringing up this concern in the first place? Have you heard whispers or been tapped regarding the ATM?

[SPCEO1]

Just speculating based on some threads of evidence and knowing how TH acts and thinks. Basically, when a large shareholder approaches you with an offer to underwrite a deal, small company management teams always struggle to say no. And, while that is understandable, it is often the lazy way out for managememnt and harms shareholder's long term interests if not done well. This is exactly how

[Joemare]

Doing an offering now, prior any Phase I results, would be the worst decision ever or maybe the best signal to long-term shareholders - time to get out, Phase I is not proving much.....

[PWIB123]

Makes sense.  I assumed when they said they had enough money for the foreseable future that would be for business as usual today.  No doubt they'll need to raise money for Ph.2, but that would feel a whole lot better if they get good results, the stock price rises, and then they raise money at a better value to shareholders.  The only thing that comes to mind if they were to

[Biobob]

The problem we have as Th shareholders atm is that they haven't been able for all the good reasons in the world to lever the value of their pipeline (close to worthless I would say atm).  I guess we'll only know once we're under the bus.

[qwerty22]

IDK what people are calling Ph1 and Ph2 but I see the path forward as 10 patients (1b), +25 patients(expanded 1b), then Ph2/3. No matter what you call it don't you think they have the cash to cover the +25 step? If 10 patients finishes end of Q1 2023 then +25 probably runs for another 12 months. The step into Ph2 (with this being the beginning of the registrational phase) won't happen

[Wino115]

A couple points, according to the Cannacord conf from a few months ago where Paul spoke. 1. He said they'd fully recruit the 70 by 1Q23. If they saw signs of efficacy in one, they would "enlarge it to 25" -- my interpretation is they would add 15 to get the full 1b sample in that cancer to 25, not add 25 to the existing 10.  He said this wording twice ("increase to 25

[Wino115]

Lastly, to add a thought on the timeline (which is always hard to predict), he said twice that they would accelerate the recruiting. Now, I don't know exactly what he means or the methods, but I have to believe that if you do a small basket of 10 and see solid ORRs, CRs, PRs, you likely can move much quicker for the next 15. Between the doctors wanting to use it now and, perhaps, you saying

[qwerty22]

On point 1 I thought the same as you for a long time but Christian said this in the Q CC  "once we see signs of efficacy that could be two responses or more in one tumor type, we would be ready to do an amendment and discuss with the FDA to increase the number of patients and to initiate assignment design Phase II assignment design with an additional 25 patient as an example and after

[Wino115]

Interesting. I guess we should go with the CMO over the CEO and hope it wasn't a language thing. But I think we're basically on the same page there and so are they. One thing that's out there is the second tranche of debt in order to redeem the remaining bond due.  That is within the period we're looking at. If I recall, SPCEO seemed to think they could hit the hurdles for

[Wino115]

Agree 100% PWIB. I realize they have a conservative Board of Dirs, so this could happen. But in stating they have enough for the year, seeing revenues grow, and having a means to unlock more of the loan, it would be perceived as nothiing but negative at this point.  PWIB your point is spot-on. They can get the money by diluting existing shareholders or they can decide to partner in oncology

[Wino115]

Anyone remember the expiry date, exercise price of the ONO warrants and what full exercise would bring in. If they can get it back to that price level, they'd have something come in assuming most have still not been exercised. 

[SPCEO1]

Off the top of my head, $3.16 by January 2024 bringing in between $20 and $25 million. But most would likely hold until 1/24 to convert them.

[Wino115]

Hmmm...so one thing you could try (since these warrants are not traded) is that an institution wants in, you could see if there's a way to buy a nice chunk of those warrants from other's where THTX knows they sit. Dubuc knows that at least 2 of those original larger institutions exited their share positions and likely have the warrants sitting there. So the idea would be for Dubuc to