Tuscany International Drilling Inc T.TID

Repost from SA post regarding Cash/Debt position

[dominik123]

 

If there is forced debt repayment, and the covenants of the debt state that all receivables and proceeds go to paying down debt, if the company takes in 33MM in HRT receivables, 13 from CYA, and 20 from the sale of their asset sale, net of interest and special creditor charges you are still looking at around 50MM, subtract that from the Secured debt and the leverage improves quite a bit to about 150M debt and 330 In PPE (company has positive working capital position ie. receivables greater than payables) and if the company is earning anything above their rate of interest, that would further better position shareholders to receive something in the end. 

The oil services sector is much different from the E&P space and I think the risk to reward here is pretty good. Given that TID has 150M dollar in net debt after factoring out positive working capital, in a chapter 7 (if Ch.11 turns into liquidation) scenario the company would need to write down the value of its by ~180 Million dollars to leave the shareholders with nothing (that's ~60% write down trading in assets that are already written down significantly, not taking into account transaction costs, etc, which could run a few percent). I don't see that happening and I think CS can negotiate a better deal.

Why would the CEO of the company, knowing that there was an imminent liquidity crisis sell its africa assets for any consideration in shares if it knew that those shares would be worthless? I think again, the company will exit bankruptcy as a going concern, equity holders will own at least a portion of the company. It's also possible those shares will be used by management to incentivize its syndicated lenders to play ball, give them debt in the new company and ~1/3 of the shares, seems like a pretty good deal to me. 

If you are looking for a company that would do well in a liquidation scenario, look at Calmena, they are also in forebearance and they actually have lower leverage (~27 in net working capital and 62 in debt=35 in net debt and ~130 in assets)

 

[khaledb]

It's my first time with possible liquidation ... who knows how much time we need to see clear with what  shareholders will have (in case they will have something) ... and how long it takes to get real something in their hands ??

[pennywyse2]

Khaledb, You might have some clarity by Feb 3, but I doubt it. If they file for bankruptcy protection (Having raised the possibiliity in a Press Release I can't imagine they are not going to) then it will likely be several months before a Plan of Arrangement is tabled for the creditors to vote on. At that point you might be able to see the impact on the common shareholders. Until then