TELUS continues to be the largest customer for the company contributing ~20% of the total revenues with Google contributing ~12.4% of total revenues and replacing META as the second largest customer. META contributed 11.8% of revenues for the quarter. The company also noted revenue decline across the Others segment by ~6.5% y/y primarily due to lower service volumes with one of global FI client, partially offset by growth in others clients.
As per our updated estimates, we expect the company to generate Total Revenues of ~$658 million for Q3/23 and ~$2.7 billion for F2023 and Adj. EBITDA of ~$141 million for Q3/23 and $582.6 million for F2023. WillowTree business has faced similar macroeconomic pressures as TI resulting in total revenue contribution of ~$45 million as of Q2/23. The company has guided for F2023 WillowTree revenues of $205 - 215 million, which translates to ~10% growth on y/y basis. Assuming a 45/55 split across Q3/Q4, results in WT contribution of ~$49 million and ~$59 million over Q3 and Q4, respectively.
Our revenue estimates are based on revenue growth estimates across the three key clients and Others revenue segment. We expect TELUS to continue to contribute ~$130 million in quarterly revenues or ~23% in y/y est. growth for F2023. META revenues have continued to decline given the reduction in service volumes across the company’s content moderation business and lack of diversification with the client.
As per our analysis, we expect META revenues to see further decline on constant currency basis over the next few quarters partially offset by the positive FX impact as per the current FX estimates. Google revenues for the quarter came in stronger than anticipated at ~$83 million (15.5% y/y growth as compared to an unusually weak Q1/23) reflecting growth in AI - related revenues from Google. We expect Google to continue to stay a prominent client at TI and generate ~$80 million in quarterly revenues or ~10% in y/y est. growth for F2023. Given the ongoing macro pressures, we expect Others segment to see revenue decline over the next few quarters prior to reverting to growth. Please note, we incorporate WillowTree revenues in Others segment Q1/24 onwards. Our Others growth estimates imply WT revenue growth of ~10% on y/y basis.
The company’s cost-cutting measures which include downsizing the team by nearly 2,000 people to-date, alongside other initiatives will generate cost savings estimated at $40 million as per management, to be realized principally in the second half. We have adjusted our employee benefit expense to implement these cost synergies.
While we think TELUS International has a good business model attuned to the current technological demands, macroeconomic issues esp. across the company’s Technology and BFSI client segments significantly impacted the company’s overall revenues, resulting in reduced profitability. TI’s business model is partly prone to recessionary pressures given the discretionary nature of the company’s business, as evident across the DX peers.
However, the revised guidance, as indicated by management, has a fair bit of conservatism already built in. While we would like to get further confidence in demand visibility across the company’s business model, we think the company has undertaken the right measures to address the imminent profitability concerns. We believe TI has a scalable business model and will be able to scale on a need basis as demand picks up. We reiterate our $15/share price target using 8.5x EV/EBITDA multiple against our updated estimates (no change to rating).