RE: RE: For those that prefer a more fundamental pI believe you mentioned somewhere else, Scottie, that TLH would be aprime candidate for a takeover, especially by another Australian giant.
BHP tried to bite off alot more than it can chew. With sovereign wealth funds deploying over $2.5 TRILLION and investing in their resource security, Canada along with many other countries have elevated protectionism. BHP shouldn't have tried to swallow POT. No way BHP robs Canada of a cash cow like POT.
Clearly, POT is a dominant player in the potash market but not so obvious is that they are also invested in other highly prospective minerals including a 32% interest in SQM a leading lithium/potash producer with an $8.6B market cap. BHP should focus on acquiring smaller pieces - under the radar, profitable producers with upside in output and demand.
Talison more than doubled the resource at the Greenbush mine, increasing proven and probable resources by 157% to 31.4 million tons at 3.1% Li. This is the highest grade lithium deposit in the world. Their tailings are estimated at a grade of 1.5%, this grade is higher than most junior lithium companies today (e.g. Litium One's James Bay project 12Mt @ 1.3%).
For whatever reason the price isn't matching the value of TLH. The price is what you pay and value is what you get, and right night the value clearly trumps the price.
Try and make sense of this:
(1) TLH increased resource by 157% for 31.4 Mt @ 3.1% Li. More tons than anyone and double the grade.
(2) As a result of resource expansion, mine life extended for another 22 years.
(3) TLH supplies 1/3rd of world and 3/4th of Chinese demand.
(4) Life of mine strip ratio HALVED to 1.2:1, TLH is already the lowest cost producer.
(5) Production will double in 2012 to 110,000 tons LCE
(6) TLH doubled sales from 2006 and up 25% in the last year... what recession?
(7) World demand expected to double over the next 10 years and TLH positioning themselves to remain the most dominance force in the lithium market for many years to come.
(8) Exploration at Salares project turned up better grades than most other exploration companies (e.g. Salar de Isla sampled 867 mg/l Li and 7979 mg/l K compared to Lithium Ones Sal de Vida 695 mg/l and 7590 mg/l K).
Yet the stock is down 40% YTD and trading at roughly 14x current earnings.
Get in now while the stock is bouncing off of a well defined support. The float is tight (89% insider/institution owned including 12%+ by Goldman Sachs.
https://apps.cnbc.com/view.asp?country=US&uid=stocks/ownership&symbol=tlh.to) and the stock will move on light volume.