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Tembec Inc. T.TMB.W

"Tembec Inc along with its subsidiaries operates an integrated forest products business. It produces lumber & building materials, manufactures & markets specialty cellulose & high-yield pulps, and produces & sells coated bleached board & newsprint."


TSX:TMB.W - Post by User

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Post by Lash99on Sep 25, 2016 11:06pm
157 Views
Post# 25276855

Week of Sept 19th in Revi

Week of Sept 19th in ReviThe week started off fairly quiet with prices flat and mills looking to take counters. This all changed Tuesday morning as the futures got things going. We finished almost up limit both Tuesday and Wednesday. Wholesalers bought heavy as the futures gave traders a good opportunity to basis trade.    We had a couple of mill announcements regarding the selling off of the Tembec Seneterre mill to Resolute and the shutdown of the Tolko mill. I think the market will go flat next week just to digest this futures rally but I think the real opportunity will be buying January futures either Tuesday or Wednesday just prior to the Roger roll . Look for pricing to start the climb the first week of October , this is the seasonal cycle as a lot of year ends and or quarter ends have been completed and companies in the U.S. Come back in to fill immediate needs. Tembecs financials will be coming out in early November so we still have a full month before we see how they are doing. I think with the past quarters pricing staying fairly consistent on the lumber side we should see Tembecs cash flow stay positive. Now regarding the comment of Resolute taking over Tembec , that can't happen. Actually for a variety of reasons , the big one is because of the anti-competition laws . Tembec produces just over    1 billion fbm per year and Resolute over 2 billion feet per year. Together they produce somewhere in the area of 25-30 percent of all the lumber in Ontario and Quebec. Now that's not to say they will trade a mill or two. Anyway , I think that with the production taken out of the market place this week the market just got a little healthier for Tembec. Lash.
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