Newmont fascination
Each to his own opinion, but I don't share the idea that Newmont will buy out TMAC. Prior to the Goldcorp takeover, they had two minority positions of any importance: TMAC and Continental. Of those two, Continental is MUCH more significant, something like 17 million oz and counting versus a very small fry Arctic headache that some day might produce 300,000 or 350,000 oz. In my understanding, Newmont has far larger fish to fry with sorting out problems at Goldcorp. When Continental ran into cash shortages a few months ago, Newmont let Sprott take down a private deal at $3 Cdn. If they couldn't be bothered with maintaining tight-fisted control at Continental, that kind of shows you that TMAC is a bothersome afterthought at Newmont.
I wasn't aware that Resource Cap. had to wind up its fund in 2021. Good find, W. That kind of paints the end-game picture to reaching fever pitch in about 15 or so months from now, in my opinion. I would look for the likely buyer to be an African operator looking for diversification, or maybe even an Aussie co. looking to spread its wings. Could even be a Russian co. looking for a North American angle.
Newmont is a seller, not a buyer. That's probably a good thing as they understand this has been a headache asset for a long while and will not be looking for a stupidly optimistic price. The chances of a deal rise to near certainty when you have an owner who 1) wants to sell and 2) is realistic about price. Same could be said about Resource Capital: they have portfolio positions in some 150 companies and have clear eyes as to realistic value.
I will be back into this name a little down the road - I maintain that the next 2 quarters will be semi-disappointing. Meanwhile, I'm comparing the operation to another "T" name: Teranga. Very similar shares outstanding, market cap $640 million at Tmac, $560 million at TGZ. Teranga on its way to 275,000 - 300,000 annual oz and Tmac stuck in the mud at a little over half that for the next 6 months or so. Intriguing, no?