Cash flow and free cash flow I have a few questions on some of the estimates and historical numbers but based on the presentation, recent update and the Q1 release: the Dutch assets are currently cash flowing over $58.00 per BOE.
The decline rate is basically flat, so adding the XTO numbers to the previous acquisition gives a 2024 estimate of just over 25 million in cash flow from the Dutch production alone on 1200 boe/d of production. But 2024 strip gas prices are 5-6 dollars an MCF Higher than current prices...
then the NGT pipeline ownership stake increases to 21% on closing the XTO deal. Last year the pipeline paid out $27 million in dividends to shareholders. I can't find any reference to historical dividend amounts other than the comment that it has paid dividends consistently for a long time. That would be 5-6 million annually starting next year. Would be a great question for any future interviews.
finally the Leduc Woodbend asset is throwing off better IP numbers since they moved to an ERH, less intensive frac design. With line fill on TMX this fall WCS discounts should remain tight which should help offset weaker oil prices. The asset could cash flow 18-24 million in 2024 depending on commodity prices. They have some gas hedged at about 3.20 at the moment. Per BOE netbacks have averaged from 34-42 per boe and were increasing with higher production.
So I get cash flow at 42-50 million next year with free cash as low as 10 million or as high as 25 million depending on how they are account for the pipeline revenue (ie is it already offsetting production costs or accounted for as its own income line item.
With 65 million in net cash on closing and a market cap of 82 million then EV is only 17 million. Still bizarrely cheap.
a couple of other notes:
as of march 31st they bought back another 230,000 shares at $2.27 on top of 600,000 shares bought at 1.88 in 2022. It is limiting down spikes and were both well below current market price
LW wells have been surprising on the upside with recent drilling.
The acquisition pipeline is still the most robust they have seen
much larger cash position should make deals easier - and faster
The Neptune sale may kick other assets loose in their back yard
The only Canadian oil stock currently hitting 52 week highs.