One of the most intelligent posts of the week. Hope this fulfills your criteria COWDOC.
Iveheld BNC for almost 2 years, but added dramatically to my holding afterthe Endo deal was first announced. Amazingly, the market hardlyresponded not only at first, but not for 5 or 6 months, leaving acompelling buying opportunity on the table for those who understood thestory.
Now, Endo has taken up the global rights, and while themarket has responded somewhat, the opportunity is compelling once againIMO.
BNC is priced in the market based on the following from what I can see:
1. Bio market in Canada that has been thrashed, and therefore hated almost universally, for years.
2.BNC has a history of big promises and/or significant news, followed bylong periods of inactivity to the next announcement (although if youlook at the history, they have not actually failed at anything so far)
3.Due to 1 and 2, EVERY spike is followed by retrenchment and areversion to the long term down trend (except for the last 8 months -this is important). Betting on BNC going down after a spike has beenlike shooting fish in a barrel, so far.
4. A general fear thatthe overall market is ahead of itself, and due for a correction, withhigh risks stocks like BNC on the most unwanted list if that shouldoccur.
While there are no sure things in a play like BNC, therisk/ reward is compelling at this point for all the reasons discussedon the board. The next few months will see a BIG move in price one wayor another. If Urocidin succeeds in ph IIIa, we are looking at apotential triple or more from here, on the news, giving a great tradingwindow, although that level will not be sustained in the long termbased on other plays (see TH for one). If it fails, BNC has somethingother bios normally don't - a fallback position. Make no mistake, afailed Urocidin trial will tank the stock, but it won't go to zero,because they would still have cash, Econiche and a somewhat profitableanimal health business. So, IMO, we have a $1 to $3 upside and a
.50 to $60 downside from here. In other words, good odds.
Thecapper for me is that Endo took up the global rights early. It cannotbe overstated how important a positive indicator this is. None of usknow how the trial is going, other than anecdotal evidence, but I ampretty damn sure Endo knows how its going. Taking up the global rightsoption 5 months early is a huge vote of confidence on their part, andenough to tip the balance to a buy at these levels IMO. I am addingand will continue to add under
.90 to my position.
Cheers, GLTAL's