FDA said more test were necessary to establish mcna efficacyBut they havent ruled out commercialisation, have they?
remember that part of the (now infamous) john ford article?
What will Telesta be worth if the advisory committee suggests another Phase 3 trial, but allows Telesta to immediately commercialize the drug?
It's possible that Telesta could be allowed to immediately start selling MCNA, but concurrently conduct another phase 3 trial. Since everyone benefits by having this drug on the market as soon as possible, this could definitely be an option. Telesta would be able to generate significant revenue, while conducting the 2nd phase 3 trial.
At that point, Telesta should be valued in the $400 million range, given that it would be a full-fledged commercial company. What pulls the valuation down a bit is the cost of the 2nd phase 3 trial. But as the company begins generating serious revenue, the cost of the trial will be small in proportion to revenue, and will be less of an issue in the future.
What will Telesta be worth with FDA approval?