Post by
beechguy on Nov 12, 2015 12:23am
is 400MM peak revenue a little light??
Regarding that article. For almost 80% to be progression free at 3 years is very important. That means the NMIBC is not metastasizing (spreading) and tumors are not growing for 77.7% of patients at 3 years. For Papillary Bladder Cancer of which 90% of patients are, 35.1% are DFS at 1 year 32% are DFS at 2 years and an additional almost 50% of patients cancer is not progressing!! How many patients if offered; Bladder removal as one option or MCNA as a second option where 7 or 8 in 10 will not have their Bladder Cancer get worse or spread and 3.5 out of ten will be disease free? Kind of a no brainer no? The independent analysis said insurance will not be an issue as it is the most expensive Cancer to treat of them all. With 24 to 33 dose regiment (according to the article - I had heard 14 to 24 doses) at $3000-$4000 a dose, the $400mm peak revenue may be a much easier target than I thought. With 60% of patients becoming refractory to BCG within 2 years or 48,000 new cases @ 20% penetration (likely way more knowing what this article states) would be just under 10,000 patients annually @ $75,000-$100,000 for full course, that is $750,000,000 to $1B in USD revenue for 20% refractory penetration!! I'm starting to see why the Orphan application was a no go:-) We shall see. Very encouraging!! GLTA beech
Comment by
HighteawithIntrepid on Nov 12, 2015 3:18am
Don't forget the royalty's from Ipsen and our soon to be announced Japan deal and a few pennies from Pallidin. but got to get that AdCom yes. Sqr when you post good things your SQR. When you post crazy talk your Dimsum. Every once in awhile you should call me HT rather than CoCo so the new kids can follow along.