RE:RE:TV's SPKrama, again a good post. Its absolutely true it first of all depends on stable prices plus psychology. As for psychology: I checked last weekend that you cannot find anyone who predicted zinc to go to 1.20/2600. And now really nobody predicts zinc to go to 1.30/2.800. Nobody!
At least I didnt find anyone.
What you find is analysts, Fitch, banks, they all said zinc would maybe "climb" to 2.200 or 2.300, some even were as "bold" as to predict prices would rise to 2.400, but then would come down again. Thats just not what markets did and do - as everyone can see prices went higher.
So psychologically with zinc we re in a comparable situation as we were in 2016 when really nobody thought zinc could run up to 1,80/3.000. They were all catched by surprise. That doesnt mean things will repeat themselves of course. It means that
1. we dont see anyone buying zinc stocks at the moment
2. we dont see anyone talking about zinc right now at kitco etc even though it outperformed copper
3. psychology is bad therefore, so following your view that means that upside potential for Trevali is limited to 0.40.
I d like to add that one shouldnt underestimate the "lemming-effect" of stupid money jumping on board. Stupid money holds crazy amounts of cash and as I mentioned already, it suffices for 2 or 3 funds to reinvest in Trevali, buying 10% of shares and we ll see the stockprice substantially up with the low volume we have now.