Glencore@LuvtoInvest I also agree with @AlfTanner, its great you re doing "numbers work" here. We already got more than enough spammers, shorters and people "with an opinion" on this board so its good to have one more person trying to put some substantial info in here. Thanks for that.
As for your calculations, guys, I appreciate it and I agree that with some effort Trevali might be able to not dilute.
BUT - and thats the thing: we have a shareholder (Glencore) with people sitting on the board and with substantial influence - that probably WANTS to have another round of dilution. They already lifted their stake in TV in December and hey - why not use the still low share price for another round of dilution and buy some 10% more of the company for half the book price? Wouldnt that be great?
Lets not be naive but not be unfair: Glencore has helped the company to survive which was great and also made a lot of sense for them of course.
But if I would be a 27% owner of an undervalued company, I wouldnt put out a buy-offer right now with a premium of lets say 25% to the rest of the shareholders, but use my influence on the board to have another round of dilution, get 10% more for lets say 0,20 CAD .
The only way I see and the only world in which this plan would NOT play out for Glencore is Zinc prices rising even more in 2021 with TV having that much of a cash flow that management would decide not to dilute.
This of course would still need the WILL of management NOT to dilute. Glencore would not be amused I guess - but they couldnt really force management to dilute if it would not be necessary...
So lets see - I own the stock and I do like the management and that is for a good reason. Maybe I should see Glencore´s role less critical as well ... but on the other hand... why did they get these warrants out? They could have just diluted normally... The effect of the warrants is that they currently put pressure on the share price and could contnue to do so for some months until the financing of RP2 is needed - and therefore guaranteeing a low share price and another big dilution below 0.23 CAD for Glencore (owning most of the warrants)...
So personally I think Glencores plan is exactly this: keeping the stock price low, dilute this summer and buy a great bunch of shares for nearly nothing.
This of course could also NOT (!) work out for Glencore IF some 2 or 3 funds get in after the numbers... for them it will be easy to push the price to 0.45 CAD in just a few weeks even against the warrant-selling and I personally think that would be the BEST for Trevali, for ALL of its shareholders and also for management as they get partly payed in shares.
Sometimes its good to have a strong shareholder - but sometimes management should also show, they re managing an independent company and not an investment vehicle...
The good thing at last: downside in this stock is very (!) limited haha :D its either gonna go up in the next weeks - or stay where it is.
Cheers to all of you as always