RE:Timing the start of the recession Thank you for your well based Analytical forecast, proxied to history repeating its bench marks while paying due diligence to current and swirling economic under tows.
The latter of course is usually the most difficult to interpret.
Take for example that the US debt limit has been suspended until 2025.
It can be accepted as fact that the current Regime will spend like drunken sailors over the next 18 months or so.
Under such circumstances and with an imminent Presidential Election, it would be most unusual for a recession to happen in 2023, and perhaps not in 2024.
Afterall, with massive liquidity being pumped into the system, the last thing that you would expect is a decline in purchasing power.
Canada of course is Reitmans main waterway and a much different animal than the US.
So far in 2023, liquidity has kept pace with 2022 and that's how I foresee 2023 unfolding...a reprise of last year.
Let us not forget that Reitmans recently liquidated their unrecognized tax assets because they foresaw continued profitability ahead.
Thats a very confident read of 2023 outcomes, straight from the horses mouth ......and perhaps carries greater conviction than being on the outside looking in.
GLTA