RE:RE:$71.79 USD WCS = $96.99 CAD -- Hello TVE Stock HoldersThanks for providing the link. This is a jewel of a company. Here is what I noticed:
1) The amount of debt due in 2024 is minimal, probably less than the money in the checking account. Further, there is NO debt due in 2025. They pay down debt as they decide, there is no financial pressure to do so.
2) I see that the capital budget for this year has been lowered $20 million. Did things get cheaper? Or did they decide to that it was unrealistic to do as many things as planned (not enough personnel, maybe)?
3) They lowered the estimated carbon tax 50 cents a barrel.
4) About 50% of current quarter oil is hedged, with lesser amounts in subsequent quarters. I didn't see anything hedged more than a year out, so it looks like the hedging is locked into the budgeting.
I am astounded at the remaining years of portfolio development. If I was management (but they are certainly better at this than I am) I would increase the divvy only after buying back as many shares as I wanted. It seems pretty clear, to me, that they will be buying another land package around their existing fields in 2025-2026; one of the charts indicated that.
I added some shares earlier in the week; I will likely do that monthly for the next few months. I see no scenario where oil drops significantly over the summer, and several scenarios with oil higher. If I recall correctly, one sentence indicated that every $1 increase in oil improved free funds $9 million.
Someone commented (Nuttal?, not sure who it was) that Tamarack had disappointed over the past year. Not true. After the merger, Tamarack's CEO had commented that there would be little obvious progress in financials for a year, as they needed a solid year to integrate the new company. I am surprised all of that has gone as well as it has. This is a long-term hold for me. I think we are all in for a surprise when we see what the 2025 dividend will be.