Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

Played out

[riski]

It looks like this hype is played out now.  I think Nuttall has probably moved on to Baytex.  He never seems to still own his top picks one month later.  If only we could get his trades in real time.  He's a pretty savvy trader, but it's hard to be one step behind.

[WhatsBestNext]

Can you kindly explain why you think this? TVE is up about 10.5% just this week. How has the hype played out? 

[riski]

Predictable.....Nuttall is out.  He doesn't see much upside here after the big move that came after his pump.  When you were buying the hype, you were buying his shares.  Current ninepoint holdings below: TOP TEN HOLDINGS³ISSUER NAMEWEIGHT   Meg Energy Corp.10.5% Devon Energy Corp9.7% Athabasca Oil Corp.9.4% Cenovus Energy Inc9.0% Baytex Energy Corp8.5% Wpx Energy Inc

[riski]

Sorry, it turns out that list of ninepoint holdings is dated.  Current Ninepoint list still has TVE on it, though I'm guessing he has already exited.  But no public information on his current holdings likely to be released at the end of Feb.  

[Mtklip]

last time oil was at these levels, TVE was at about $4 and now they produce more and have more reserves.

[kisstopherp]

Yup. Compare HeadWater to TVE and then tell me if TVE is farirly in comparison. 

[WhatsBestNext]

Riski, that's fair. Thanks. I guess the way TVE seems to be leading the pack with FCF puts them in a good position for growth in my mind. But maybe I'm too narrow minded that way. Nuttall shared a graphic of this by showing how they will take the least number of years to buy back their shares than competitors in the energy market (1-3 years). I believe this was from the last time he was on

[riski]

Don't get me wrong.  This is a good company and I am a proud owner.  It's just highly valued relative to other leveraged names that are going to have more torque with rising oil prices as the leverage has suppressed their share prices longer. Nuttall always flocks to torque.  Think BTE, ATH, MEG, NVA (though this one is gassy). I don't love the "how many years to

[WhatsBestNext]

Riski, very helpful insights! Thanks for sharing. 

[mylar1]

riski, the time period to pay off debt and buy back shares was intended to illustrate the FCF potential. Buying back all shares was never an expectation nor was paying off all debt. Remember too that as the price of oil rises above $60 (as Nutall used in his illustration) FCF rises too.

[Bennys65]

If Spur is looking for an exit route TVE is a great way to go.Currie already monitized one company,TVE viking,by selling to TVE and trusting their management to be good stewards of capital.He is on the TVE board and my guess is the talks are ongoing.Spur is roughly 20,000 bpd and has land and production in the Matens Hills sweet spot.>500% IRR at 50 wti.So a merger of equals at good metrics

[riski]

That's exactly what I am trying to say.  We are agreeing with each other, but saying it differently.  I know he doesn't mean for the companies to buy themselves.  He's trying to show FCF expressed in terms of their share price and debt.  This is the crux of it which maybe I haven't explained well.  I will try again. For a high debt company, the debt

[mylar1]

riski, much clearer!