RE:Renewables IPO Timing - August + $585 million to TWM>>Looks like a good deal for TWM if the issue price is reasonable - no idea yet what that might be.
Yeah, the 'if this flies' is the asterisk next to all of my thoughts about this. Hard to evaluate. But assuming this is their best path and the IPO is likely to happen*, a couple thoughts from the prospectus:
Significant projected EBITDA beyond the base $40M from the 'truck racks and whatever' spinoff, including an upgraded $95M/yr for the renewable diesel project + $11M/yr for the two co-proecessing projects, though the ability to fund the renewable diesel project is still a question mark depending on the success of this IPO.
The potential for TWM to drop down additional assets it can brand as 'renewable'.
So much crossover with the base business and assets that this re-packaging and re-branding to get a new source of capital and multiple uplift is hard not to see as a scam.
How this IPO sails will be decided soon at least, and a successful offering would be concurrent with a FID on the renewable diesel, I'd think.
~$180M in IPO proceeds would put net debt at TWM at $550M.
* I think it's good to keep in mind the failed Fireweed IPO, Predator Blockchain taking over Predator Oil, becoming Highwood Oil Company, then selling all their oil properties, accumulating mining rights and becoming Highwood Asset Management. These guys aren't too meek to swing for the fences every time. I think after they hit a home run on their first pitch with Secure they've felt comfident enough to keep doing it.