Shell\NGC\TXP .. Possible Market Drivers for TXP Lurk and Learns + Chreca1:
Alwaaaaays a good idea to do a review of the "experts" on the other boards to glean any information of "value" as many of the posters are multiple posters on the boards that I follow.
As alluded to in my post vis a vis Coho delays and CPM. And like the speculators, in the absence of the facts (aka inside information) are quick to point the finger at their purported culprit.
Something the shorters are (known) to capitalise on. i.e. as Proselenes speculated, until they company issues a NR 60 - 90 days from a newsworthy item. As hope would have it if the shorters in their arrogance miscalculates the timing of positive news they could be "to the battle stations". And as also pointerd out, the houses doing the HFT & coded attacks are obvious from the trade by trade data. Easy for CUSIP analysis by Bay Street "investigators", who understand this "business plan"
Anyway, the framing of the explanation for this distraction, IMHO as a move led by NGC is to the Long Term benefit of TXP. Interpreted (by me) as a vexed Shell, putting the squeeze on TXP who promised $500k?month CF (months ago).
Like an accident on the Sir Solomon H. or the Uriah T Butler, this "contingency rerouting" extends the Coho gas ONLY by about another 5 weeks to let NGC prove the "point of control" for TXP gas. Something that was not possible with TXP's prior subservience to Shell plus with the possible strategic addition of the "woman of ill repute well" included on p6 of the PP Presentation. My choice would be like the Hasely Crawford, Wendell Mottley, Roger Gibbons, some other javelin thrower with a "mango pelting" pedigree. But I digress,
Meaning the "bridge" to standing up to (an opportunistic) Shell and their Point Fortin customers versus NGC and their Claxton Bay (Phoenix Park\Point Lisas) customers may have been at the root of this "delay", which PB might have been reluctant to divulge, in the hope of an early resolution. But when then there is "saga boys" and "corporate gangsterism" in play, NGC was (apparently) prepared to wait Shell out. All 100% speculation of course.
And as one poster reminded us, the vultures want you to trade your shares so that you can "churn" your PF thus generating fees for them. Their motive is to obviate patience ... patience .... patience; as opposed to the strategy of yesteryear of "buy and hold".
In conclusion, from what I can deduce\interpret\extrapolate PB tried to explain the reason for the Coho "delay" by saying (convincing me anyway) that "it was beyond his/TXP's control". Stressing, TXP was\is ready but like when "PB was thrown under the bus by experts without O & G experience", Shell appears to have been dealt a "wake up call" by the new sheriff in town".
And as others have reminded us, the new "framing" is with $20 mln in the treasury, and $0.5 mln per month cash flow delayed for 1.25 months put this high stakes game of brinksmanship into the manageable and credible category.
BWDIK? Over the past 100+ years Trini's understand that bullying will rear it's ugly head when you least expect it from the entity that has the "advantage". That is until the government (NGC & Heritage) desperate for interim and immediate gas and FX is prepared to have a "showdown with Shell". Maybe "she" should be called the "Franklyn Khan" or the "Kevin Ramnarine" or the Carite ....... but not the "the other name".
GLTAL - GLAP
Cheers
Stanley