RE:Relative perm
Thanks. I do think that they have a firm grasp on Hererra turbidite reservoirs especially XM but I also realize they are continuing to learn from each well. They are only 5 wells into this first exploration program.
I think they were fooled at chinook because at Cascadura 1-ST and at Cascadura Deep they had gas kick back to surface under high pressure and had difficulty controlling the wells and you how they tested (even at Cascadura Deep with some formation injury).
Because of that gas under presssure at Cascadura they used heavier mud at Chinook to control the well, and even then they had to flare some gas during drilling so there was flow of gas to surface. I think they were pretty surprised to find water with trace of light oil and that was why they studied the well for such a long time. The up dip well will be interesting but there is no reason to do that right away.
We don't have all the details at Royston but there was enough to declare a hydrocarbon discovery with a pay zone of 400 feet open to the bottom. They anticipate it is gas. They don't know how it will flow but they likely have ideas about that. Meanwhile Shipka felt compelled to throw in that sentence about porosity less than cascadura but similar to other offset wells which must mean central block. (off set well has to be a well with production, can't be a well log).
Makes you appreciate how great Cascadura is - that is worth more than all of the market cap by double or more. And I believe Royston will add to that. I cannot believe that FinnCap says Royston is 50% chance AFTER the discovery. I think 50% would have been too low even before they started to drill this well.