RE:RE:RE:Shorting update - London and Canada Lurk & Learns + Proselenes:
RE: Stanley, I think the price is being firmly supressed........and the potential for a hostile big coming in after the reserves report comes out and before Cascadura is online is very highly possible. And I think someone will make a bid, between end of March and end of July.
Stanley: Watching trade by trade and posting my observations of this suspicion (s), especially post March 31 2021; I'm in 100% agreement.
RE:If someone were to come in now, with say 180 pence ( 3 CAD) bid......I am sure they could pul it off.
Stanley: This is where I would question the derivation of your "say" pricing. As I'm reminded by a 2020? Proactive Q & A where PB outlined his receptivity to a "bidding war" from all known and (macotious) unknowns. Point being what does PB actually mean by "wall of cash" ...option may include but are not limited to an "asset sale" or a Touchstone long term oil & gas sales.
Do an "org chart expansion" analysis vis a vis EXPLORATION to DEVELOPMENT to PRODUCTION; to get a feeling for contributory factors to the (misdirerction?) "delays" as a junior transitions to a 10 000 booe/day. Needless to say, despite positive signs of Covid abatement there could be a "gap or two" worth considering.
While prized assets are being advanced. e.g. EIA for Cascadura Complex & c/w LLT Separators); Kraaken needing specialized for "deep diiving) and Coora/Coora Deep/Quinam etc being used to justify a "holding pattern" for drill mob(s), Legacy efficiency improvements (e.g. SCADA), etc; these are all reducable to line items for a potential bidder's spread sheet done using (say) 2P NPV.
Be reminded that those potential bidders at the top of the list (aka food chain and possibly engaged in SUSPECTED price suppression); could be highly connected and/or entrenched ALL in the local spheres of operations and influence some going back over 100 years. Compare that to PB's 10 years of Trini presence. Trinis (in Trini speak) would point PB out in a crowd as the one wearing "short pants".
Point being, the members of the "book enders" club (Penal - Mayaro Point G. based) would be the leading candidates in my list of contenders, where a "add on" Touchstone c\would be a very simple operational (and in some instances a 7: 1 cost Of/S to On/S reduction/substition) replication opportunity over fifty years in the making.
In the other resource sectors, e.g. Barrick uses (for organic/production growth and production replacement) targeted acquisition based on a HO team whose playbook results in better spreadsheets than the targeted company. e.g. "Scenario City"
What would PB be doing in a $125 - $150+ (per barrel) over the next 5, 10, 25+ years? The last thing that I would expect is him going down to the boardroom at Sydney Street Rio Claro to "micro manage" the "pace of play". That IMHO is JS's "area of influence". As a matter of fact I would suspect that he might want to consider "ragging ther puck" as the action(s) of a certain actor has VASTLY increased the intrinsic value of Touchstone's (take over take under) asking price. There are two components to an asking price, fixed & variable.
The fixed is easily calculated based on GLJ's assessment. The intrinsic UPSIDE is the main reason why PB might want to be the QB for/of the OPPORTUNITY for the "sale of ther century". The key word here is "opportunity" in face to an entity's apparent (amorous? sanctions?) aspirations. Recall in paleo conflicts Trini gas (for the warplanes) in credited with helping to facilitate the west's success. Anyway, I digress.....
Personally, (if I was PB) I would be in Calgary, working with my (hopefully) legal and NPV experts in an (interner secure) "Scenario City", doing scenarios under which a recommendation can be made to the BoD. While keeping a promise to obviate any (shorts looking for a financing?) "take - under".
All this to say that while Touchstone has navigated (i.e. vastly increased the monitizable value of) the Legacy & Ortoire Blocks to point of "good standing"; with Trinidad & Tobago in a win-win position for it's people, irrespective/regardless/despite who the successful bidder may or may not be. With the TXP shareholders standing to benefit from PB's (PROVEN) ability to negotiate the best deal possible.
Lurk & Learns might FINALLY get to learn if the trading leading up to the (promised) March 14th reserve & operational update has any connection to the (ALLEGED) shorts (and alleged PPS uglification) or some type of INSURANCE for the current major share owners.
BWDIK? Surely we can find a calypso that sings the praises of our highly coverted O & G "assETS"...see the "Ten Commandments of Pan" for clues.
GLTAL - GLAP + Caveat Emptor
Cheers
Stanley