RE:RE:Uranium mining halts could happenSo what if this does happen - mining halts in KAzak and say Cigar Lake for a few months as this mess unfolds ? Let's discuss.
1. How many LBS REALLY are in the Spot system ? 20 Million - 50 Million - 100 Million - 200 Million - 1 Billion ?? Anybody ? I say far less than 50 Million. If so, what quack would sell at $ 24 and change when even THEY know that prices are going to rise big time. Make $ 0.35/LB on a sale - Gee that is exciting and can take all that major penny profit to the bank. So the Spot LBS are truly and mostly irrelevant looking at the big picture.
2. Plus how many LBS REALLY are in inventory at all the Nuclear Power Plants around the world ? All these new plants being built are BIG as we know. They consume I believe a Million LBS per year but need much more than that to fire up. Say Double but have heard triple.
So 53 new plants need about a 100 Million LBS over the next couple of years.
3. Some say close to a Billion LBS in inventory globally. I do not believe this is accurate but could be wrong. As of March 17, 2020, I say it is 650,000,000 LBS.
4. Meanwhile all the current Nuclear Power Plants continue to eat up about 515,000 LBS per day. That will be 46,000,000 LBS in Q1-20 and 184 Million in 2020.
Taking all the above into account, and the U LBS in all the Nuclear Reactors - since nobody is an expert, I will take a shot but prove me wrong.
Globally as of today March 17, 2020
650 M in inventory
- 184 M consumed out to March 17, 2021
Leaves 466 M invenory as of "
+ 128 M mined out to March 17, 2021 although I believe this number is high
= 593 M in inventory
Prices stay low for the next year, thus more mining LBS declines - down to 110 M LBS and consumption increases to 190 M. Rust and decay must be setting in at MR mine by this time. Will take 2 years or March 17, 2023 to get MR up to speed if they even can.
593 M in inventory as of March 17, 2021
- 190 M consumed
+ 110 M mined
= 513 M in inventory as of March 17 ,2022
U Prices at this point MUST be above $ 55/LB or mined LBS will continue to decline. if U prices are at $ 55/LB, then ALL Uranium shares will be much higher and UEX would be easily easily easily ( with Cobalt) at $ 0.50 + per share but much earlier than the above. But let us continue if prices stay low.
513 M in inventory as of March 17, 2022
- 195 M consumed
+ 105 M mined
= 424 M in inventory as of of March 17, 2023
424 is barely 2 years of Global consumption out to March 17, 2025. For fun, the final inning
424 M in inventory as of March 17 2023
- 198 M consumed
+ 105 M mined
= 331 M in inventory in 2024 - do the same in 2025 and 2026 and 2027 ( Cigar Lake closes) and the world cannot produce enough Uranium to keep half the world plants running so they begin to shut down, blackouts and ugly times.
The above shut downs will not/cannot happen. But the world does need 2 Billion LBS of Uranium in the next 10 years. The mined math does not add up - even at $ 55/LB. Must be higher, much higher for Capitol to flow and build new Uranium mines.
Good place to have money right now - the Uranium sector. Has been truly ugly to watch this unfold BUT this is a when not an if. If we can all just hang on a bit longer. The light - excuse the pun- is at the end of the tunnel and will shine bright with Electricity powered by beautiful and clean Nuclear Power Plants.
UEX at $ 0.45 per share analysts, really ? Way too low.
MM