April 7, 2021
Forest Products
Lumber Stats: Strong start to 2021 as market conditions tighten
Event: The Western Wood Products Association (“WWPA”) released January 2021 softwood lumber stats.
North American softwood lumber production was largely flat, increasing 0.1% y/y in January – During the month, a 9.7% y/y increase in Canadian production (to ~2.0 bbf) was largely offset by a 5.3% y/y decline in US production to ~3.1 bbf. The 3.0% m/m decline in US production is somewhat surprising to us given that pricing has remained at record levels and there are more operating days during the month. In January, the US accounted for 60% of North American production, which is above the 10-year average of 55%. In the US, the y/y decrease in production was attributable to all regions, with the South down 6.4% y/y and the West down 3.5% y/y. In Canada, production growth was driven by a 17.1% y/y increase in British Columbia and a 5.1% y/y increase in production east of the Rockies.
North American softwood lumber consumption was flat y/y in January – Annual changes in consumption were driven by increased US softwood lumber consumption, which was up 1.8% y/y to ~4.2 bbf. However, this was offset by a 10% y/y decline in Canadian softwood lumber consumption to 699 mmfbm. Weather conditions were favorable during the month, which contributed to more active job sites, as non-seasonally adjusted (“NSA”) US housing starts were strong in January at 111k units (or ~1,584k SAAR). We expect lumber demand to remain high, as repair & remodel demand remains at a high level and housing is supported by reduced inventories.
North American operating rates increased in January – According to the WWPA, US operating rates increased 6 percentage points m/m to 91%, while Canadian operating rates increased 14 percentage points m/m to 85%. In the US South, operating rates increased to 95% (from 90% in December), and in the West they increased to 87% (from 80% in December). The BC operating rate increased to 80% (from 67% in December). East of the Rockies, the operating rate increased to 88% from 75% in December. The rebound in operating rates was attributable to a 7.2 bbf revision in implied North American capacity, with the revision distributed fairly evenly by region. In our view, reported capacity figures have been a bit higher than actual industry capacity, but it will be interesting to see how capacity changes over the coming year with several mill start-ups/expansions.
US softwood lumber imports decreased 8.1% m/m – Canadian lumber imports fell sequentially, decreasing 3.3% m/m to ~1.1 bbf. Non-Canadian imports fell by 28.9% m/m to 184 mmfbm, driven by a decline in European imports, which fell 28.8% m/m to ~133 mmfbm. Latin American imports also fell by 32.4% m/m to ~35 mmfbm. In our view, the decline in European imports is more likely attributable to shipping capacity constraints rather than a shift in the trend; this should result in increased European imports as we move through the year.
Two sawmills have decided to close over the last month despite the record pricing environment – Over the last month, Greenwood Forest Products announced the closure of its Penticton mill and Neiman Enterprises notified employees that it plans to close its Hill City, SD mill. At Greenwood, lumber availability was cited as the primary constraint. At Neiman Enterprises, the lack of timber supply and dependence on the US Forest Service were cited as reasons for the closure of the 60 mmfbm/year sawmill. We still expect capacity additions to outpace supply reductions this year, with YTD additions from Resolute, Westervelt, and West Fraser already totaling >500 mmfbm.
US log exports were up significantly y/y – According to the WWPA, US softwood log exports were up 45.6% y/y to 101 mmfbm, driven by significant increases in exports to China (+28 mmfbm y/y) and Japan (+7 mmfbm y/y).