Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

Oil will it $ 100

[divime1]

and here is why .

Even at $ 73 WTI the rig count in the USA was down 3 . Oil companies aren't spending on drilling new wells or increassing production . They want high gas prices to scr ew Biden .

Iran attacked an oil tanker owned by Israel killing the British captain . Isreal will respond .

Iran needs a war diversion to unite the country against a foreign enemy . Iranians are currently rioting over water shortages .

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20210722-protests-over-water-shortages-turn-deadly-in-southwest-iran

[PipelessPauper]

And VET has leverage to higher prices With the div returning 2022, it will be MASSIVE at $100 oil the upside here is enormous  I’m predicting we’ll see a $3 / share payout implemented in 2022  

[stockmarket1]

Great thoughts P. P.! My previous, very conservative share price thoughts are realistic but, I hope you share price target are more right.

[PipelessPauper]

Thank you SM! At cash cost of $48, & $100 oil, that’s $1.313 billion FCF  (using the same ~ 300 mm capex as 2021). Currently VET mkt cap is $1.43 billion thus a $1.313 FCF is a 92% FCF yeild @ $100 oil what do you think the dividend will be on $1.313 billion FCF ????? & say 161mm shares? Insane???? $8 / share?? enormous leverage and upside here

[PipelessPauper]

Whoops - I forgot to convert USD to CAD... it would actually be 115% FCF yeild @ $100 oil ... Just insanity 

[Natgasbc2021]

But arent they only 50% oil ish... Nat Gas has to keep pace for these #s to make sense...

[PipelessPauper]

$14 TTF is ~ $95 oil 20-40% of production from a drilled well is associated Ng. so if govnt /companies stops drilling for new wells, it’s not just oil that gets hit with a shortfall  and there is no OPEC standing by with lots of supply... No NG is trading directly off the DUC #. And it doesn’t look good. [verrrry good for us tho] also the split is not 50/50 its 60 oil, 40 gas.

[stockmarket1]

Let's hope the market sees what you are calculating P. P. Still bizarre why the share price is still lagging immensely!! Unreal!

[PipelessPauper]

Yeah it is crazy, but it’s all oil stocks I own. O&G has become a “show me” story. My gues is 1 - 2 qrts to show the market they arnt gonna use the high prices to go drill a bunch of new wells.  Patience

[sclarda]

stockmarket1 wrote Let's hope the market sees what you are calculating P. P. Still bizarre why the share price is still lagging immensely!! Unreal! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The shareprice is "Lagging" because many oil investors have learned from hard experience that the oil price is impossible to predict and having been burned many

[stockmarket1]

Oil, without any doubt is, and always will be very cyclical. Can't say much more than that in that realm. I think, if anything, investors just want stability and a "reliable " dividend again. Long term.

[sclarda]

stockmarket1 wrote Oil, without any doubt is, and always will be very cyclical. Can't say much more than that in that realm. I think, if anything, investors just want stability and a "reliable " dividend again. Long term.

[stockmarket1]

100% well stated. Couldn't agree more. Debt, like consumer debt, is and will be the end of everything if not managed appropriately. Brian Acker , for several years, kept repeating that VET's divy payout was unsustainable! Well before it actually happened. Like he also said... " earnings do matter "! And you're right... Look at where we are today. It's like starting over.

[PipelessPauper]

No its more than ‘like’, it IS starting over.

[PipelessPauper]

You know, despite all our disagreements Sclarda, I actually agree with you here: ”At todays oil prices VET is cashflowing aprox. close to $500 million after capex. Lets say $450 million to be conservative as capex may go up next year and where oil prices go is anybodies guess. Lets assume oil prices stay in this range for a few years.  Once VET has gotten their debt down to aprox.  $1.6