RE:WTI PricingThey all wanted to be like VII when it comes to liquids, not just TOU.
As far as comparing TOU to VII (and others) I don't know how much gas TOU sells and where, but PEY sells mostly AECO, AAV is spread even, and PONY is also largely AECO, aside from their other deals, so IMO VII has the best dry gas marketing strategy of them all.
As for the condensate, I don't think VII can get it stateside and probably won't have to. As was supposedly mentioned in the conference call, the drop in conde price was largely due to shipping lag for condi coming out of texas - the alta conde price dropped so quick on the refinery demand stall, that the US shipments of conde to Alta did not react quick enough - that's not sustainable, because they can sell it down there for more money, plus they have to pay transport, so I'm guessing by now all those arrangements have already been reworked and I'm expectind Alta conde prices to bounce back in short term. In the long term, IMO the VII strategy of selling local is fine - with all the oilsands production that's just come on stream and that's still to come, there should be plenty of local demand for condensate and so I'm thinking the prices will come back to WTI levels or premium. Plus let's not forget that VII has a pretty good hedging strategy, so I'm hoping their conde hedges are in place for Q4 from earlier, which should fetch 80 dollar range prices, so I'm not expecting a big hit in Q4 for VII's condensate sales prices.
Overall, seems to me VII has in the past, and still is, making all the right moves when it comes to marketing. The technical stumbles of the past two or so are now behind them, it seems, so that only leaves the overpromise/under-deliver issue. If they don't get blindsided by anything else and pull off another one or two quarters of solid results, meeting their own guidance, then eventually market should start paying for the perfomance. Right now we're trading at a 50% discount to peers, it seems, strictly on growth, land potential and cash flow, IMO.
all IMO