Where Does WTO Go - What Will OPEC Do this Weekend?The last couple month and a half and this week in particular have been gut wrenching to say the least. WTI is off by $16.50 since its peak on October 2, and the last ten days have seen the largest drop since 1984.
In 2014 and 2015 I was still working in the Montney and saw firsthand how far things can fall. The reason for the drop was two fold. 1) the emergence of US shale oil and 2) the conscious (or brain dead) decision by the Sauds ( and OPEC) to keep pumping despite rising US production. This led of course to record volumes in storage throughout the OECD. Prices were capped from October 2017 until mid-2017 (the production cut went into effect in Feb 2017 I believe) almost three years of self inflicted pain.
Aside from keeping the taps open, they also made two horrendous errors; 1. that they could kill US Shale becuase they based their assumptions on brekeven prices above $80 per barrell and 2. that US shale could not continue to grow (then the Permain came along).
Now that US shale is for real, I just cannot see OPEC not cutting production. I don't think they want to see the same freefall.
The US waivers are a wild card. If I were the Sauds, and Russinas I would feel betrayed by the US.
We'll see. I'm guessing its 70/30 that they cut.