Seven Generations Energy Ltd. class A common shares T.VII

What will VII's CFlow Be at $65 Condy ($WTI)

[retiredengexec]

In Q3 Condy sold for $79/bbl and natgas was $3.65 per Mcf.

If Condy sells for $65 in Q4 the net is $14per bbl on 35% of the product mix or $4.90 per boe.

If natgas sells for  $4.50  that is $0.95 per mcf more than Q3. Bulking to boe and multipling by 40% of product flow we see an increase $2.3 per boe. The net difference is $2.62 on 220,000 BOED, we would see a a reduction in Cflow $52.4 Million.

As the Condy price gets back to normal we could easily see 70-75 per barrel.

Prolonged cold could see spot prices in December well above $4.00. The HH spot price today is $3.50 ish per Mcf.

I'll spill the beans here. VII's gas  is about 42.4 MJ/m3 as opposed to the 37.4 MJ/M3 basis.  That alone is a 13% uplift over the posted gas prices.

[MyHoneyPot]

In Q3 in AUG/SEPT they were actual producing 228 thousand boe a day in that two month period, they had brought on 42 wells in the third quarter. So that is essentially the equivalent of what they brought on the first half of the year. In 2017 q3 production compared to Q4 production increases by 13,000 boe a day, similar number of well tie ins. . In Q3 2018 they stored 184,000 boe of condensate

[dalerules88]

If  you're close on the CF of $493M, that would be a killer Q4. Capex Q1-3 cumul. was 1,503m and budget is 1,675 to 1,775m that would leave between 224m and 324m FCF if they make even the low end of this range in FREE cash flow, I doubt the market would ignore them much longer after that...perfect timing on the NCIB - I'm guessing if we go lower, they'll put the FCF to work, as it

[dalerules88]

check that, they guided to high end of capex budget range, so: assume your Q4 CF 493M  or $1.36/share capex Q4 1,775M makes Q4(E) FCF 224m or $0.61/share that would make CF for the year $5.00/share or roughly $1,810m and EV/CF = 3.7 historically EV/CF has run in 5-6x forward range, even more on trailing so again, by this metric, almos 50% off sale on VII shares just for fun compare TOU EV