Turkey dreamsBack in May, 2016 Malcolm Shaw at HydraCapital speculated about Valeura's potential in the Thrace basin, comparing the play to the Western Canadian Montney with 50-150 BCF per section (OGIP).
Using 150 BCF per section, and one quarter of the acreage being productive or about 50 sections, and a recovery rate of 20% of OGIP, he calculated a potential recoverable prize of 1.5 TCF or 750 BCF to Valeura's 50% share.
By my calculation, that's 125 million barrels of oil equivalent, maybe more considering European prices for gas. At $10 Cdn. or $8 US per boe in the ground, that is $1.25 billion (Cdn.)
With 80 million shares outstanding, that's about $15.60 per share. More realistically, let's say the company does a secondary offering of 20 million shares at, say, $2.50 per share to fund part of their expenses after well #2. That's still a potential $12.50 per share, still a 10-bagger from here.
Just dreaming, you understand.