I got caught yesterday.After the big run up and subsequent retreat I sold part of my position with the hope of making profits elsewhere between news..
Well yesterday, when i saw the stock start to move, I bought back those shares in the $4.40 to $4.50 area. I should have waited a bit, but i don't mind, i am more scare of missing part of my dream boat than loosing a bit on a trade.
I have a feeling it is time to fill our positions. This could fly in no time, no news required.
I am convinced that this bassin will be developed, and be very economic. North America technologies will be used. Wiith similar geology as some of the US bassins, at $7.00 per mcf plus condensates at Brent, i figure after allowing for Condensates revenues, a net profit after taxes of $5.00 per mcf seems apropriate.
I believe that in time 100 TCF of gas plus condensates could be recovered from Valeura net interest..That would be $500 Billions in future profits.
I umderstand that this needs to be discounted for present value, geology, technology, political, and market risks.
But the fact is the Enterpsise value is only $300 Millions.
The way i see it at this price we are getting a huge discount on a very discounted risk adjusted basis.
I suspect most of Vle investors kind of know this, but the market is impatient, and people trade a lot these days.
The mood from i can probably buy it later at a cheaper or even just a bit higher price, to I need to buy it now or i will miss the boat will happen very fast. Specially with such a discounted equity. This will be a big move.
Seems to me that yesterday, I was a precursor of this move.