RE:RE:RE:RE:CASHThe PR states full year guidance for OPEX and CAPEX, yet the statements imply future capital spending of $180 million to $200 million. True, the working capital
Is after tax. Assuming that all expenses are deducted, that leaves the $105 million as free cash flow. Note that there is no SG&A mentioned anywhere.
If the $34 million is included in 2023 CAPEX, roughly $150 million to $165 million CAPEX spending remains.
That said, OPEX is estimated at $30 a bbl leaving $50 net before tax and royalties. With royalties based on roughly 50% opex and royalties, add another $10 a bbl. At $80 a bbl, that leaves $40 a bbl pre tax and $20 a bbl after tax at a 50% tax rate.
At 20,000 bopd over 270 days for the remaining 3 quarters, that leaves $108 million cash flow after tax assuming all is sold. Plus the $105 million less remain CAPEX planned leaves around $50 million to $60 million at year end. That does not include SG&A.
Adding 5000 more bopd will boost that by $100 thousand a day at $20 a bbl after opex, tax and royalties are about $10 million a quarter.
It's a stretch to reach $100 million FCF for the year. When Sean said that the next acquisition had to be much more significant in the 25,000 to 50,000 range, that means to me that quite a bit more cash flow will be needed going forward.
I'm staying on the sidelines for now.