Valeura Energy Inc. T.VLE

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[Kadiddelhopper]

out of commission for about a month undergoing assessment and repair. How will this impact Valeura and its revenue generation ...if at all? I thought I'd read that the Tanker was on logistical and training manoevres, so perhaps the immediate effect is not so very impactful? Is the Tanker to be used to carry in bulk the Wassana production ? or the eventual Mubadala production... ? I am not clear on that point!

[SMlachake]

Read a bit deeper. Everything is in the past NRs. How is a wassana holding vessel impacting assets that have been in full production while it was being upgraded? This is simply a floating tank for Wassana wells. Assets previously owned and operated by a different company. On average 21,500bpd everyday since Sept confirmed with this NR and enough tax credit to ensure all the 62% of it is coming

[Kadiddelhopper]

Thx SML...point made !   a lapse in my memory!

[goldwatch69]

It's 51% less Capex for infill drilling. I would hazard a guess at 210 days x 21,000 bopd x CA$110 a bbl x 51% pretax cash flow lesrs 10% for Capex ~ CA$200 million in cash and receivables.  That would be the high end of the estimate. Low end would be 75%. Just guessing. Sean estimated US$30 million a month pretax cash flow at US$85 a bbl. That would US$210 million in 7 months (210 days)

[BERationale]

Note the $30mm was net to the JV when it owned 85% as opposed to 100% now so its now $35mm a month of BT cash flow. Assuming use of the tax pools they have, that's $420mm of after tax cash flow on a <300mm mkt cap company. I have never seen a stock trade sub 2x CF much less 0.75x CF. This is still an easy double once the Mubadala information is released to the market. Much of this will be

[goldwatch69]

No! My numbers are 100% correct based on 100% ownership of 51% pretax cash flow. The US$30 million was net to the SPV and 87.5% was for VLE. Now it's 100% to VLE.  

[bfw]

The last presentation mentions $33 million US net to the 85%. Let's use that for simplicity. That gets us to $396 million US of cash flow (post tax due to credits). Market cap currently is about $200 million US. So, I get a ratio closer to 0.5x CF! bfw

[goldwatch69]

That's not to the 85%.  It was net to the SPV... Valeura Asia. VLE owned 85% of the SPV at the time. Now at 100% ownership, VLE gets what's left of the $33 million after Capex. That's assuming $85 Brent and 25,000 bopd.

[bfw]

Good point.  Either way, this remains significantly mispriced based on current production, tax credits, and reduced decommissioning liabilities.  I'm not sure when the market fully wakes up. Possibly with further reserve information or perhaps when the Mubadala cash is announced. However, we may have more acquisitions and growth plans to analyze in the interim! bfw

[Suppe11]

Well...21500 bpd were not "since Sept.", but the last week of March. Official production numbers in the mean time were posted here and if I remember right, they were around 18k-19k bpd. Imho all the market is/was interested in atm, was the cash statement (= accumulated since Sept.). My guess: They were not able to do it (under subsequent events), because it's still not calculated

[goldwatch69]

Lol! Oh, it's in the bank alright. Valeura Asia owns the bank accounts. Sales have been posted on Discord. My guess is you're not invited. True, there was concern over diminishing flows. That doubt is gone. These oil fields just keep on ticking year after year and there seems to be no end. These field can go on for another 10 years given the history.  Not to worry. The proof that the

[BERationale]

You are bang on. Even if its not in the bank (which I don't think is the case) it would sit as a receivable on the balance sheet posted May10th. OPEC 1mm bbl/d cut - oil should fly Monday and VLE should follow.

[firstworld]

Haha Im sure no one cares about being invited to a FREE channel with a group of AI Bots and unverified faceless participans haha. Red flags are popping like crazy that they did not post the closing numbers as required by exchange rules since it is material....or not in this cass maybe they got nothing so not reporting.

[traderlong2]

Keep up the hard work FW so glad you got caught on the swing trades no way you get to drive this down to replace them time to go back and play aoi you are a better fit over there with your millions of dollars best of luck to you Vle is on its way up way up !

[firstworld]

Yeah caught nice two week swing trade with the play money 50K shared avg 2.39 will dump soon. Sad you missed it though i guess the govt support payment (welfare) was late ....