RE:RE:How undervalued is CPG still?@LiquidOctupusV2: Nuttall's chart does NOT account for hedges. He points this out in the footnotes. My numbers come directly from CPG's May corporate presentation, which would account for their hedges.
Another good example would be to look at MEG. Nuttall's chart shows that MEG is trading a huge FCF yield based on today's crude prices. However, MEG has hedged 48% of its entire 2021 production at less than $48. As MEG's Q1 earnings report demonstrated, they had huge losses in Q1 due to hedging.
In sum, Nuttall's charts are far more optimistic as it assumes company's are fully unhedged. Once you take hedging into account, the FCF yields of these companies are much more modest. However, when we look at CPG's corporate presentation, which does account for their hedging book, it still shows that CPG is trading at between 19%-20% free cash flow yield relative to enterprise value (market captialization plus all debt) for 2021. This explains why Nuttall sees CPG being able to buyback all of its outstanding shares and pay all all debt in 4.5 years, whereas I am suggesting it would take just over 5 years.
Hope this all makes sense.