RE:RE:Precipice of an epic rallyOutlandish? You really think so?
First, my $12 to $15 forecast is based on oil getting to $100 next year, which I only give a 50/50 chance, although I believe the chances are more likely now than when oil was $80 because of several factors including a quicker termination of Covid lockdowns.
Omicron seems to be more transmissible but considerably less lethal. If this is the case (no guarantees), Covid hysteria will come to an end in about 3 months. Even, now with Covid restrictions in place demand is outpacing supply. Once restrictions are completely lifted and fears disappate, watch out... $100 oil might soon seem like a bargain.
At $100 oil, or let's say $90 average for '22, CPG is generating about $2 billion in free cash. Using a conservative price to CF multiple of 3.5 you have a market cap over twice of what it is today. Now, if oil stocks get rerated, which is almost a certainty, a more sensible multiple would be closer to 5 with CPG trippling in value. These are not outlandish predictions. What is outlandish are today's ridiculously low valuation multiples, which will are an historical annomoly and will not last for much longer.
BigJoe778 wrote: Personally I think your estimate is a bit outlandish. I'll go on record and say we'll be lucky to see CPG at $8 by '22 year end. Still roughly a 33% increase from today's price and far more realistic based on how the market currently views this stock. Guess we'll have to wait 13 months to see who's right.