Veren Inc T.VRN

Over $500,000,000 Free Cash and the Hedge

[MarkDRichards]

I'm wondering why the stock price ticked down in a response to oil price decline.  The flucuating price of oil won't impact their anticipated free cash becaue of their hedging strategy, as if they were not hedged. 

"The Company is expected to generate significant excess cash flow of approximately $525 to $650 million in 2021 at US$55/bbl to US$65/bbl WTI for the remainder of the year, providing an increased opportunity to further enhance shareholder value."

"These hedges primarily consist of swaps with an average price of approximately CDN$65/bbl."

I see you guys compaining about executive compensation and loss on a disposition.  While those are things that certainly exist, the free cash of over $500,000,000 means this company can easily pay down the debt, buy back shares and eventually boost the dividend. 

With no aquisitions planned they will be pulling in significant cash this year.  The bull case, especially over the medium-to-long term is strong.   I'm long on this one and I haven't seen anything to make me want to review my position.

[riski]

I think it requires a deeper analysis than that.  Investors are not blind.  They know there are hedges, but that's actually the essence of the problem. Stock prices are partially pricing in a significant oil recovery into the WTI 70s or beyond.  The macro for oil looks extremely bullish right now, more than I've seen in about two decades.   So CPG comes out with

[MarkDRichards]

That's a real case.  But how does that relate to sell off triggered by a downturn in oil prices?  I think for most retail invetors, they only relate oil companies to commodity prices.  And while you say they're a large company, their market cap doesn't reflect that right now.       And, I agree with you completely on the macro for oil.  But the

[Bpultra]

============ wait its early .... just like this  BB for the most part is negative ... the funds and big boys and deep pockets also take this same view.. if you can grab a div with the same investment elsewhere then why wouldn't you.. right now CPG is a dog ... and Mr Market is saying so..

[Backinblack1000]

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[Bpultra]

well that would be nice.... I am still sitting on my trading blocks above $5 so it may take a few more days ...or if oil jupms $10 bucks we may go over $5 ... really guessed wrong on this  latest down swing .. didn't see that one coming... but as I have always said you just need to guess right more times than wrong .. if crude keeps moving up... may drag CPG kicking and screaming over the

[Backinblack1000]

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[iownbmw545]

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[MarkDRichards]

It's a talking point and it's a big chunky metric that we can all see and measure.  And it provides clear guidance on what we can expect.  There is enough money for the company to do a share buyback and take chunks out of the debt.  I trust that some people are nervous.  And why wouldn't they be?  Oil recovery confidence isn't mainstream yet.  Eric

[Bpultra]

=========== I do not consider discussion .. bickering... unless if you feel someone doesn't feel the same as you .. then you consider than bickering .. that being said why isn't this stock over $6 never mind trying to climb the $5 wall.. because it is hated ..and until that changes the SP is not going to either 

[Chad123]

Highly likely that it will NOT change. CPG mgmt just hopes for new investors to buy into their sh!t. I'm pretty sure there is another run coming for oil stocks...unfortunately there is also a high probability of a crash coming.