Post by
Dogsbreakfast4U on Jun 12, 2021 6:02pm
Nuttall on CPG Aug 2015
I bought CPG for my RRSP after reading this on The Motley Fool.. That was a big mistake that I still own. If I held this in a non registered account I would sold a long time ago. I find it interesting that he is back in now. Live and learn. "On Tuesday, Sprott portfolio manager Eric Nuttall appeared onThe Business News Networkand outlined his top three picks in the energy sector. And Mr. Nuttall is worth paying attention toin the five years hes managed the Sprott Energy Fund, he has outperformed theS&P/TSX Capped Energy Indexby a total of 21.3 percentage points. Interestingly, the first company he mentioned wasCrescent Point Energy Corp.(TSX:CPG)(NYSE:CPG), a company he only started buying recently. So, why does Mr. Nuttall like Crescent Point so much? We take a look below. A cheap share price To put it bluntly, Crescent Points shares have been absolutely hammered recently. In the past three months alone, the stock price is down by well over 50%. Mr. Nuttall thinks this has made Crescent Point the most mispriced oil and gas stock that I can find. He says even the companys proved reserves are worth more than the companys market value. So, by buying the stock, you get part of the proved reserves, all the probable reserves, and all the other properties essentially for free. Crescent Point is also trading at its cheapest multiple ever, at just 5.5 times cash flow. At that price, Mr. Nuttall believes theres plenty of upside to justify the risk. A reformed company Crescent Point has received plenty of criticism in the past, and rightly so. The companys acquisition strategy, while ambitious, left the impression that management cared more about growth than shareholder value. These acquisitions were mainly funded by equity, thus diluting existing shareholders. Likewise, the companys dividend was also fairly ambitious, and was partly funded by issuing new shares through its dividend reinvestment program (DRIP). When putting the two together, Crescent Points share count took off, increasing by more than 100% over the past five years. But the company seems to have reformed its ways. The dividend has been slashed, and is now more sustainable. The DRIP has been eliminated. Management wants to internally fund acquisitions going forward. So, when taking a fresh look at Crescent Point, Mr. Nuttall sees a strong energy producer with a significantly depressed share price. A big caveat Mr. Nuttall believes that oil prices are unsustainable, and hes expecting a WTI price of US$55-60 next year. So, when he says that Crescent Point is undervalued and that it has a sustainable dividend, it is based on this big assumption. Midway through the interview, Mr. Nuttall was pressed on what the company is worth if oil stays at US$38, and he made a very insightful point: At $38 you dont buy an oil stock. So forget about if the dividend is sustainableis the company sustainable? And are any companies sustainable at $38? So that speaks to the lunacy of todays oil price. Mr. Nuttall was making an argument that oil prices must go up from here. But at the same time, he pointed out the big risk of investing in a company like Crescent Point. And lets face the facts: theres a very real chance that oil prices stay depressed for quite a while."
Comment by
Mrlongpants on Jun 12, 2021 7:52pm
I Ithink CPG should be trading at $15.50. I think all the analysts are unsure where CPG should be trade. CNQ is trading near is highs why sholdn't CPG Be trade at those multiples.Gltalongs
Comment by
highalpha1 on Jun 12, 2021 10:27pm
@Mrlongpants: A share price of C$15 is not out of the question for CPG. During his last appearance on BNN, Nuttall mentioned that should CPG trade at a 4.5x CF multiple under an $80 WTI scenario, CPG would be trading at C$14.70.
Comment by
Mrlongpants on Jun 13, 2021 10:35am
!00% agreement. Sorry about my english. I wrote my statement before without my glasses. We will see those numbers in the future at wti $80.00.GLTALongs.
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Backinblack1000 on Jun 13, 2021 12:24pm
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Backinblack1000 on Jun 13, 2021 9:25am
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highalpha1 on Jun 13, 2021 11:15pm
@Moemoney42 (and anyone else who uses this board for the purposes it was intended): I think that I possess a fairly high threshold for stupidity before placing anyone on ignore, but since putting the following three usernames on block, this board has been much more palatable: Aboriginalgal Backinblack1000 iownbmw545
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Backinblack1000 on Jun 14, 2021 12:00am
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Moemoney42 on Jun 14, 2021 9:48am
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