Historically WTI rises in the spring/summer due to seasonality. During US election years the trend is for a sharp spike higher on average in spring/summer than non-election years. This is historically followed by a decline in the price into the November election.
One thing that could very well throw a wrench into the typical decline, is the state of the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This is the first election in the history of the SPR where an administration has gone into an election with a significantly reduced volume in the SPR. In 2022 the Biden admin significantly drained the SPR to lower the price of gas at the pumps ahead of the US mid terms. Will the Biden admin really jeapordize the security of the US by drawing with the reserve at record lows? Surely China and Russia are watching this and will take advantage of the situation if he does.
Biden could very well have sunk any chance of winning in November because of the games he played in 2022. It's going to be very hard for him to replenish the SPR with oil heading higher. I suspect he's also not willing to draw from the SPR to the same degree as 2022. He's between a rock and a hard place leaving him at the mercy of international markets.
Historical depletion of the SPR...
